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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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909 FXUS63 KOAX 161103 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 603 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small chances (20%) for light rain across our far southwestern counties today. - High-level smoke is possible across northern Nebraska today. - Seasonal temperatures with a small chance (15-25%) of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions into the extended periods. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Today and tonight: Much of the forecast will remain quiet with temperatures near to slightly below normal for this time of the year. Northwesterly upper level flow will continue overhead as we remain between the backside of a departing upper trough over the Great Lakes region and amplifying ridging to our west. This will keep much of the extreme heat bottled up across the far southern Plains through the period. HRRR smoke fields do show some increase in vertically integrated smoke across our far northern counties through the day to filter some of the sunlight. Ongoing weak convection across northeast Colorado and western Nebraska is forecast to continue to move east/southeast throughout the morning and could skirt our far southwestern counties as a weak mid-level disturbance moves southeast through central Nebraska. We do only have small chances (15-20%) as deeper moisture remains limited. The weekend and beyond: The forecast for Saturday and Sunday will remain dry with fairly light winds (under 15kts) as a surface ridge slowly moves overhead. Precipitation chances will increase across western Nebraska as we move into later Sunday which could provide an increase in high clouds to our area, but that`s about it. Ensemble and deterministic guidance into our extended periods do begin to show a warming trend as we move into later next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 West-northwesterly winds are in place this morning with patchy fog in southwest Iowa struggling to expand any closer towards Nebraska. Winds should remain relatively light and only become more northwesterly with a few to scattered high clouds while KOFK sees a few gusts this afternoon just under 20 kts. There`s an outside chance at a stray shower or storm making its way near KOFK around 03-06z tonight but that likelihood is closer to a 10% chance. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kern AVIATION...Petersen