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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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045 FXUS66 KMTR 111744 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1044 AM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 115 AM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Notable cooling begins today, with temperatures at or below seasonal averages through the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 115 AM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Mid- to high-level clouds are streaming over the region, keeping winds somewhat breezy and disrupting the formation of marine layer stratus away from the immediate coast. This morning`s lows remain in the 50s to low 60s in the valleys, and up to the mid 70s in the thermal belts. A significant cooling trend is set to begin as an upper level trough forms over the West Coast, with forecast highs across the inland regions dropping by up to 5 to 10 degrees from yesterday`s highs, resulting in highs in the mid 70s to the low 90s, except in the warmest spots in interior Monterey and San Benito counties where highs could reach values near 100. Along the Pacific coast, highs will remain in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Breezy onshore winds will develop this afternoon and evening with wind gusts up to 25 to 30 miles per hour through the gaps, passes, and northwest-southeast oriented valleys. Combined with low humidities above the thermal belts, the last two days have seen some stations above the marine layer influence reaching red flag criteria. Overnight humidity recoveries remain poor over the thermal belt; otherwise fire weather conditions will improve with cooler and more moist air moving in. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 115 AM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level troughs will be the theme of the upcoming week, and by mid-week, inland highs should bottom out in the mid 70s to upper 80s. The coastal regions remain relatively stable in the mid 50s to the mid 60s. CPC outlooks continue to show a lean towards temperatures at or below seasonal averages into the first week of September. Model cross-sections are noting a wedge of elevated dry air coming in on Monday and Tuesday, which could cause elevated fire weather concerns in elevations above 2000 feet. While onshore winds should prevent widespread critical fire weather, breezy and gusty winds at elevation could result in some locations seeing conditions reach red flag criteria. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 AM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Stratus has receded from most airports with stratus expected to persist slightly (1-2 hours) longer at OAK and MRY. Winds generally stay out of the northwest and strengthen to 12-15 knots during the day before weakening again overnight. Locally stronger gusts up to 25 knots are expected to SFO during the afternoon/evening. IFR to LIFR CIGs and pockets of decreased visibility are expected to develop overnight with moderate to high confidence in stratus reaching all airports with the exception of LVK and SJC. For LVK and SJC, low to moderate confidence that stratus will reach SJC with a later arrival time between 10-12Z possible. The NBM and GLAMP suggests stratus will temporarily reach LVK between 12-16Z but confidence remains low. Vicinity of SFO...CIGs have cleared from the vicinity of SFO with few to scattered low level clouds expected to persist through the remainder of the morning. Northwest winds strengthen during the afternoon/evening with gusts up to 25 knots possible. Moderate to high confidence that stratus and IFR CIGs will return during the late evening with decent model consensus between NBM, NAMnest, and RAP but the HRRR does suggest some potential for a later stratus return closer to 09/10Z. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR CIGs and decreased visibility are expected to clear at MRY within the next 1-2 hours with VFR to persist afterwards through the evening at both MRY and SNS. Moderate northwest winds continue through the afternoon/evening before lighter winds return overnight. Stratus returns early this evening with IFR-LIFR CIGs expected overnight and pockets of decreased visibility at MRY and SNS. Moderate confidence that CIGs will stay IFR at SNS but ensemble guidance indicates some potential that LIFR CIGs may develop. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1043 AM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Fresh northwest winds will continue over the coastal waters through the middle of next week, afterwards increasing to become strong. Significant wave heights between 6 to 8 feet are expected through the remainder of the weekend. Coastal jets look to develop along the Big Sur coastline and along the coastline extending from Point Arena to Point Reyes during the early work week. Moderate northwest swell and light southerly swell continue to move through the waters over the next few days. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea