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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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483 FXUS66 KMTR 122348 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 448 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1255 AM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Cooling trend continues today, with a slight warmup beginning Tuesday and temperatures at or below seasonal averages through the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024 A progressive upper level trough axis will pass across our area this afternoon, shifting east into the Central Valley later tonight. As expected, temperatures are running about 5-10 degrees cooler than normal across our locations away from the marine boundary layer influence. Marine layer stratus is mostly clearing out as the upper trough sweeps across the region. Low stratus clouds will return this evening with onshore surface flow filling in low lying areas and valleys along the coast along with periods of drizzle and fog from the North Bay down to Monterey Bay. Temperatures tomorrow will be very similar to today, maybe a degree or two warmer in some spots. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 300 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Extended forecast remains quiet with temperatures remaining near or slightly below normal for at least the next seven to ten days. A brief interruption in the cooler temperatures will be Wednesday, when a progressive shortwave ridge quickly amplifies as it tracks west across our area, allowing temperatures to tick a few degrees warmer for one day. Breezy winds can be expected later this week, especially at higher elevations as a series of low amplitude shortwave energy stream across our area out ahead of a deeper trough that will develop over the Pacific Northwest later this week into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 443 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Currently VFR at all terminals with a marine layer depth of about 1,000 feet. Moderate confidence on all terminals except LVK, SFO, and SJC developing a ceiling tonight. Widespread VFR will prevail by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period. Slant range visibilities will likely be reduced due to haze and smoke. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate confidence on the terminal evading a ceiling overnight, but if one were to develop it would likely be a "sunrise surprise" scenario in the 12Z-16Z timeframe in the IFR to low-end MVFR range. Winds will prevail out of the west through the TAF period with gusts up to 25 knots to be expected in the afternoons and evenings. SFO Bridge Approach...Low clouds will be present 11Z-16Z. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow at both terminals. High confidence in LIFR ceilings impacting both terminals overnight with VFR prevailing by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will prevail out of the west/northwest through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 443 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Moderate to fresh northwesterly winds continue with coastal jets developing off of Point Arena and Big Sur by mid week. Strong gusts will become more widespread over the outer waters beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday. Significant wave heights will peak between 5 to 8 feet and continue to abate over the majority of the coastal waters through mid week. Moderate northwesterly swell and light southerly swell continues to move through the waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea