369
FXUS66 KMTR 141801
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1101 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 342 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Temperatures at or just below normal continue through this week,
as well as breezy onshore flow and a fairly pleasant pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1059 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The marine layer continues to compress as the shortwave ridge
continues to move eastward through our area. Following behind will
be a upper-level trough giving way for a slight increase in the
marine layer depth, but overall will remain to the coast and within
valleys. Although temperatures today showed a slight increase of 1-3
degrees higher than yesterday, overall temperatures tonight will be
relatively the same as last night with minimum temperatures
lowering to the 50s and low 60s. Max temperatures for Thursday
will continue the trend from previous days of a 1-3 degree
difference across the board. Inland areas will see mostly 70s and
80s with some isolated spots seeing 90s, while coastline will see
no noticeable change with temperatures in to 60s. Onshore winds
will have a slight increase Thursday afternoon into the evening,
but will be limited to the coast and along the valleys, gaps, and
passes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1059 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The upper-level zonal pattern will promote a rinse and repeat theme
through the end of the week. Temperatures will fluctuate between a
few degrees but will remain near normal or slightly below normal
seasonal temperatures. Overnight, temperatures will remain in the
50s to 60s across the board, while the max temperatures will
remain in the 70s and 80s inland and 60s along the coast. Although
the winds will become gusty and breezy during the afternoon and
evening hours, no major fire concerns as we see good overnight
recoveries. The upper-level pattern then starts to show a deep
troughing pattern over our area by the weekend due to the upper-
level low that will be situation west of Oregon. This will make
way for a deeper marine layer, stronger winds along the coast,
passes and gaps during afternoon and evening hours, and cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Satellite shows mostly clear skies across our region with some
few low clouds near the coast continues to dissipate. MVFR/IFR
conditions are expected to return late tonight over some terminals,
especially KOAK and Monterey Terminals. KAPC may see some low clouds
but low confidence to lower ceiling heights to MVFR/IFR at this
moment. Otherwise, expect VFR through the TAF period for remaining
terminals. VFR returns for KOAK and Monterey Bay near 16-17Z.
Onshore winds will become breezy this afternoon into the evening
before returning to light to moderate overnight.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. Onshore winds will
become gusty and strong this afternoon, with gust up to 25 knots,
then diminish to moderate this evening. Low clouds will hover near
the airport but low confidence that it will intrude over the
terminal.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR currently with onshore light to
moderate winds. MVFR/IFR ceilings return this evening for KMRY but
timing is a bit uncertain as models show a later arrival near 08-
09Z. Depending on the compression of the marine layer, ceilings and
visibility may lower to LIFR criteria late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1059 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Fresh NW winds will strengthen slightly to become strong over the
outer waters today. Gale force gusts are possible within the
coastal jet south of Point Sur and isolated near gale force gusts
become possible off of Point Arena. Elevated winds will continue
through the end of the work week before beginning to diminish over
the weekend. Seas will remain moderate throughout the forecast
period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SO
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...Flynn

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