240
FXUS65 KMSO 150908 CCA
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 303 AM
MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...Continued hot and dry with breezy westerly winds
today. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
from Lemhi County to southwest Montana.

On Tuesday afternoon, a subtle disturbance sliding down the Divide
may bring a thunderstorm or two to the Glacier Region. By Wednesday,
another disturbance moves up from the southwest drawing additional
monsoon moisture into the Northern Rockies.
There is a slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the region. Nighttime showers and isolated thunderstorms are
also possible across northwest Montana Wednesday night. The flow
pattern aloft will have shifted to more of a south to southwesterly
direction by Wednesday, which could allow some of the wildfire smoke
from northeast Oregon to drift over the Northern Rockies into
Thursday.

The ridge of high pressure over the western U.S. amplifies the
latter part of this week causing daytime temperatures to warm a few
degrees further. Temperatures for the lower Salmon, Snake, and
Clearwater River valleys will be back up in the neighborhood of 110
degrees, while the Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys, Lower Clark Fork,
and Kootenai regions will see the upper 90s and flirt with triple
digits. Another round of heat related highlights may be needed.

Around 53% of the ensemble clusters have the hot ridge breaking down
early next week (July 22-23). This would bring cooler temperatures
but unfortunately could open up the potential for a decent round of
thunderstorms and new fire starts.


&&

.AVIATION...Monsoon moisture will bring a chance for gusty
showers and isolated thunderstorms across Lemhi County today.
Other terminals will be hot and dry with westerly breezes 10 to
15 knots, and gusts to 20 knots at times into the early evening
hours.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...&&

$$