803
FXUS06 KWBC 021902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Tue July 02 2024

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 08 - 12 2024

The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE model solutions are in good agreement and consistent
with a high amplitude pattern over the North Pacific and western North America
during the 6-10 day period. From west to east, the 500-hPa longwave pattern
includes a ridge over the western Aleutians, troughing across Mainland Alaska,
and a ridge over the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS). The stable and high
amplitude trough/ridge pattern favors below-normal temperatures throughout much
of Alaska and above-normal temperatures for the western CONUS. A broad area
with greater than an 80 percent chance for above-normal temperatures is
supported by the reforecast tools. An amplified 500-hPa trough early in this
period favors near to below-normal temperatures for much of the Great Plains
and Mississippi Valley, but a warming trend is expected by day 10. Farther to
the east, above-normal temperature probabilities increase closer to the East
Coast as little to no cooling is anticipated on days 6 and 7.

As of 11am EDT on July 2, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates that
Hurricane Beryl will cross the Yucatan Peninsula later this week and reemerge
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico as a Tropical Storm. Model spread
increases next week when Beryl would be nearing northeastern Mexico or the U.S.
Gulf Coast. By days 6 and 7, Beryl or its remnant low is expected to be located
either across northeastern Mexico or the western Gulf Coast. NHC is also
monitoring a tropical wave east of the Windward Islands. NHC states that this
has a 20 percent chance of tropical cyclone (TC) development during the next
week. This tropical wave or potential TC is forecast to take a similar track to
Beryl. The combination of the remnant low associated with Beryl and the
following tropical wave or TC support enhanced above-normal precipitation
probabilities across the western Gulf Coast, Rio Grande Valley, and southern
Great Plains. The increased chances of above-normal precipitation probabilities
across the eastern CONUS are related to the amplified trough initially over the
Mississippi Valley and a favorable pattern for diurnal convection. A highly
amplified ridge favors below-normal precipitation for much of the western and
north-central CONUS. The predicted 500-hPa height pattern along with the analog
tool derived from the manual blend supports near normal precipitation across
the Southwest.  Troughing across Alaska favors increased above-normal
precipitation probabilities across the state.

Based on the GEFS and ECENS, near normal temperatures and above-normal
precipitation are favored for Hawaii.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Forecast confidence: Above
average, 4 out of 5, due to a high amplitude longwave pattern over Alaska and
the western CONUS and good agreement among the temperature and precipitation
tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 10 - 16 2024

Early in week-2, the GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE generally depict an eastward
expansion of the anomalous mid-level ridge over the lower 48 states while a
trough persists across Alaska. The manual 500-hPa blend depicts positive height
anomalies throughout the CONUS with +60 meters over much of the northern tier.
The expansive mid-level ridge yields increased above-normal temperature
probabilities for a majority of the CONUS. A two-category change in the
temperature outlook from the 6-10 day period was necessary for the Great Plains
and parts of the Midwest as cooler-than-normal temperatures on days 6 and 7 are
expected to be replaced by warmer-than-normal temperatures by day 11. Near
normal or only a slight lean towards above-normal temperatures is forecast for
the south-central CONUS where 500-hPa heights are closer to average and there
could be enhanced rainfall and cloudiness. The persistent trough favors a
continuation of cooler-than-normal temperatures across Alaska through week-2.

The GEFS and ECMWF reforecasts along with the analog tool derived from manual
500-hPa blend are in good agreement for the week-2 precipitation outlook.
Although any heavy rainfall, associated with the remnants of Beryl, is expected
to be timing off by day 8, enhanced low-level moisture is expected to persist
across the southern Great Plains and western Gulf Coast. Therefore, increased
above-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast for these areas. Another
area with relatively large above-normal precipitation probabilities includes
the Southwest as model solutions depict the 500-hPa ridge axis over the Four
Corners which is favorable location for an enhanced Monsoon. A slight lean
towards above-normal precipitation is forecast across the eastern CONUS, as a
slight weakness in the subtropical ridge should lead to periods of diurnal
convection. Anomalous mid-level ridging favors below-normal precipitation from
the Pacific Northwest east to the northern to central Great Plains and upper
Mississippi Valley. Cyclonic flow and below-normal 500-hPa heights support
above-normal precipitation probabilities throughout Alaska.

Based on the GEFS and ECMWF models, a slight lean towards above-normal
temperatures and above-normal precipitation are forecast for Hawaii.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Forecast confidence: Above
average, 4 out of 5, due to good model agreement on the evolving longwave
pattern and good agreement between the dynamical and statistical tools.

FORECASTER: Brad Pugh

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 18.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19650630 - 19940714 - 20000617 - 20050628 - 20060619


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20060616 - 20050627 - 19940714 - 19990715 - 19980704


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 08 - 12 2024

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    B    B
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    N
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 10 - 16 2024

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$