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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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450 FXUS63 KMQT 161149 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 749 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours through today, then showers diminishing on Saturday into Sunday. - Mostly dry weather and seasonable temperatures Sunday through midweek. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... Issued at 444 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis early this morning shows an area of low pressure rotating over northern Minnesota with an associated frontal boundary draped southeastward across Wisconsin. This has kept the radar somewhat active all morning with scattered rain showers drifting across the UP. At this time, highest concentration of showers are covering the eastern third of Upper Michigan, but isolated showers continue to drift across the remainder of the forecast area as well. With latest LAPS indicating limited CAPE values of only 100-400 J/kg over the far western corner of the UP at this time, any embedded thunder has been limited. Chances for thunder should increase, nonetheless, through the morning as higher MUCAPE values overspread the UP. However, the main threat in this setup will not be severe weather, but rather periods of heavy rain with mean accumulated precip totals in the 0.50 to 1.25 inch range through the course of the day. Due to recent dry conditions, though, flooding is not anticipated to be a threat outside of any quick, brief ponding of water in any heavier showers. Meanwhile, high temperatures in the low to mid 70s will be widespread today, and patchy fog through the morning will reduce visibilities. So, exercise caution during the morning commute. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the area tonight through Saturday as the low pressure moves through Lower Michigan. Instability left over from this afternoon could bring a few heavy downpours across the area this evening before rain chances diminish late tonight as the instability wanes. Given the lack of shearing, no severe weather is expected tonight through the rest of the event. That being said, with PWATs remaining near 1.50 inches we could see a few isolated spots get up to an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. Otherwise, most of the U.P. should see an additional 0.25 to 1 inch; no flash flooding concerns are expected given the dry antecedent conditions in place. Hopefully, this rainfall relieves some of the aforementioned abnormally dry conditions across the western half of the U.P.. Expect to see an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity Saturday as diurnal instability increases. Heading into Saturday night and Sunday, showers and storms decrease across the area as a high pressure block building over the Central U.S. brings ridging back across our area; expect the last of the showers to get out of the far east by Sunday. For temperatures tonight through Sunday, expect near normal to below normal temperatures for this time of the year (highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the 60s, save for the mid 50s in the interior west Saturday night). High pressure ridging looks to dominate at least the first half of next week, keeping us dry. However, with cooler air from Canada flowing into our area via the northerly flow, expect the temperatures to be fairly mild, around to just below normal for this time of year. We could see a shortwave riding along the high pressure bring some showers and storms back across the area by the middle of this week, but the jury (a.k.a. the model guidance) is still out on whether this will happen or not; rainfall chances remain at less than 15 percent at this time. Temperatures do look to increase back to normal to slightly above normal by the end of next week as more southwesterly flow rotates into the area via the parent high moving further east. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 748 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Flight restrictions to continue throughout TAF period as scattered showers with embedded thunder move through the sites. Through this morning, LIFR conditions will prevail at CMX and SAW through mid to late morning with some improvement to IFR/MVFR by afternoon. By late afternoon, CMX and SAW could briefly rebound to VFR before deteriorating again during the evening, but this is low confidence. Elsewhere, IWD will generally hover around the MVFR/VFR mark. Winds will not be impactful, but there will be a shift from the southeast to northwest at IWD later this morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A northwest to southeast band of southeasterly 20 to 25 knot winds continues from the central lake early this morning before leaving to the east out of the lake late this morning. Light winds of 20 knots or less continue over the lake the rest of today until northeasterly winds around 20 knots move over the western half of the lake tonight as the low pressure moves from northern Minnesota into Lower Michigan. North to northeasterly winds look to increase to 20 to 25 knots across the rest of the lake Saturday as cooler air from Canada drops down into the area, before weakening to 20 knots or less again in the evening. Light winds of around 20 knots or less are expected to continue through the rest of this weekend and early next week as high pressure ridging moves in. As for thunder storm chances, we could hear a few rumbles of thunder this morning, but proper storms don`t look to develop until later today and mainly near the southern shoreline as instability increases. While thunderstorm chances remain into Saturday evening, the best chance will during the afternoon hours when instability is greatest, with the lowest chances during the late night and early morning hours. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...TAP