450
FXUS63 KMQT 161149
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
749 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms with
  locally heavy downpours through today, then showers
  diminishing on Saturday into Sunday.

- Mostly dry weather and seasonable temperatures Sunday through
  midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
Issued at 444 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis early this morning shows an area of
low pressure rotating over northern Minnesota with an associated
frontal boundary draped southeastward across Wisconsin.  This has
kept the radar somewhat active all morning with scattered rain
showers drifting across the UP.  At this time, highest concentration
of showers are covering the eastern third of Upper Michigan, but
isolated showers continue to drift across the remainder of the
forecast area as well.  With latest LAPS indicating limited CAPE
values of only 100-400 J/kg over the far western corner of the UP at
this time, any embedded thunder has been limited. Chances for
thunder should increase, nonetheless, through the morning as
higher MUCAPE values overspread the UP. However, the main threat
in this setup will not be severe weather, but rather periods of
heavy rain with mean accumulated precip totals in the 0.50 to
1.25 inch range through the course of the day. Due to recent dry
conditions, though, flooding is not anticipated to be a threat
outside of any quick, brief ponding of water in any heavier
showers. Meanwhile, high temperatures in the low to mid 70s will
be widespread today, and patchy fog through the morning will
reduce visibilities. So, exercise caution during the morning
commute.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the area tonight
through Saturday as the low pressure moves through Lower Michigan.
Instability left over from this afternoon could bring a few heavy
downpours across the area this evening before rain chances diminish
late tonight as the instability wanes. Given the lack of shearing,
no severe weather is expected tonight through the rest of the event.
That being said, with PWATs remaining near 1.50 inches we could see
a few isolated spots get up to an additional 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall. Otherwise, most of the U.P. should see an additional 0.25
to 1 inch; no flash flooding concerns are expected given the dry
antecedent conditions in place. Hopefully, this rainfall relieves
some of the aforementioned abnormally dry conditions across the
western half of the U.P.. Expect to see an uptick in shower and
thunderstorm activity Saturday as diurnal instability increases.
Heading into Saturday night and Sunday, showers and storms decrease
across the area as a high pressure block building over the Central
U.S. brings ridging back across our area; expect the last of the
showers to get out of the far east by Sunday. For temperatures
tonight through Sunday, expect near normal to below normal
temperatures for this time of the year (highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s and lows in the 60s, save for the mid 50s in the interior
west Saturday night).

High pressure ridging looks to dominate at least the first half of
next week, keeping us dry. However, with cooler air from Canada
flowing into our area via the northerly flow, expect the
temperatures to be fairly mild, around to just below normal for this
time of year. We could see a shortwave riding along the high
pressure bring some showers and storms back across the area by the
middle of this week, but the jury (a.k.a. the model guidance) is
still out on whether this will happen or not; rainfall chances
remain at less than 15 percent at this time. Temperatures do look to
increase back to normal to slightly above normal by the end of next
week as more southwesterly flow rotates into the area via the parent
high moving further east.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 748 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Flight restrictions to continue throughout TAF period as scattered
showers with embedded thunder move through the sites.  Through this
morning, LIFR conditions will prevail at CMX and SAW through mid to
late morning with some improvement to IFR/MVFR by afternoon.  By
late afternoon, CMX and SAW could briefly rebound to VFR before
deteriorating again during the evening, but this is low confidence.
Elsewhere, IWD will generally hover around the MVFR/VFR mark.  Winds
will not be impactful, but there will be a shift from the southeast
to northwest at IWD later this morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A northwest to southeast band of southeasterly 20 to 25 knot winds
continues from the central lake early this morning before leaving to
the east out of the lake late this morning. Light winds of 20 knots
or less continue over the lake the rest of today until northeasterly
winds around 20 knots move over the western half of the lake tonight
as the low pressure moves from northern Minnesota into Lower
Michigan. North to northeasterly winds look to increase to 20 to 25
knots across the rest of the lake Saturday as cooler air from
Canada drops down into the area, before weakening to 20 knots or
less again in the evening. Light winds of around 20 knots or
less are expected to continue through the rest of this weekend
and early next week as high pressure ridging moves in.

As for thunder storm chances, we could hear a few rumbles of thunder
this morning, but proper storms don`t look to develop until later
today and mainly near the southern shoreline as instability
increases. While thunderstorm chances remain into Saturday evening,
the best chance will during the afternoon hours when instability is
greatest, with the lowest chances during the late night and early
morning hours.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP