242
FXUS63 KMQT 060535
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
135 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue to track through the area the
rest of the afternoon into tonight. Heavy downpours and lightning
should be expected in these storms. Some storms could produce gusty
winds.

- Stronger winds on the Great Lakes will result in dangerous
swimming conditions in Schoolcraft County tonight and Sunday in
Alger and Luce counties.

- Cooler temperatures return to the Upper Peninsula for the work
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Afternoon RAP analysis has low pressure centered away to our north
over Hudson Bay, with troughing extending into the Great Lakes. An
associated cold front is already reaching far western Lake Superior
and far NW WI. Ahead of it, amid deep, mositure-rich SW flow,
batches of showers and storm shave developed across the UP and
northern WI, and continue to train through the area. Here at the
office, where an initial batch moved through over the past couple of
hours, we were able to pick up a quick quarter-inch of rain. A quick
survey of available surface obs and MRMS estimates reveals a general
0.25-0.75in totals where any heavier downpours have occurred so far.
However, some spots (particularly in the western UP) are already
estimated to have received totals in excess of an inch; as this is
where multiple batches have already occurred, this seems reasonable.

Rounds of showers and storms are expected to continue through the
evening and into the first half of the night as the cold front
slowly makes its way through. Would expect another widespread 0.50-
0.75in across most of the UP, with heavier amounts up to an inch
possible. However, especially with one heavier batch currently in
north-central WI aimed at the central UP, amounts in excess of an
inch are becoming more likely across the central UP through the
evening. Will have to continue monitoring for potential water issues
before rain wraps up from west to east tonight. As far as the
strong/severe threat, storms so far have been fairly benign, with
lightning only really having picked up more over the past hour or
so. Still, with MLCAPE up to 1000j/kg analyzed over the UP and cloud
tops looking cooler and more "bubbly" on satellite, these late
afternoon hours may still hold the potential for some embedded
stronger storms that could put down a stronger gust. Still, with
such deep warm cloud depths (freezing level at 15kft, -20C at
~25kft), hail could be rather hard to come by.

Rain wraps up from west to east tonight, moving out of the eastern
UP by sunrise. Winds shifting to the NW with the passing front
briefly turn calmer, but then pick up the second half of the night
with gusts increasing to around 20mph later tonight into Sunday.
Some patchy fog is expected in the wake of any rain showers (indeed,
we`ve already seen some), but as winds pick up tonight, this should
be able to mix out.

Ridging into Sunday will bring a return to quiet and sunny
conditions, while a cooler airmass in place provides much-needed
relief from the heat. Expect highs in the lower to mid 70s across
much of the UP, but only in the 60s near Lake Superior. Temperatures
fall back into the upper 40s to lower 50s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Dry weather persists into Monday with mainly zonal flow aloft and
surface high pressure sprawled out across the Great Lakes. This
gives way to a shortwave ejecting out of the Northern Plains and
potentially overlapping with a slowly moving frontal boundary, which
may support precipitation. While some thunder will be possible with
a few hundred j/kg of MUCAPE and upwards of 30kts of bulk shear,
severe storms are not favored at this time. Following this passing
shortwave, ensemble and deterministic guidance continue to show
another trough digging into the Great Lakes Wednesday out ahead of a
ridge extending from the Plains into central Canada. This keeps low-
end chances for rain/storms in the forecast through the middle of
the work week.

Afterwards, deterministic and ensemble guidance are in more
agreement on the Plains ridge moving over our region Thursday,
perhaps flattening some into Friday ahead of our next trough/frontal
system moving out of the Canadian Rockies later Friday into the
weekend. This would favor dry weather Thursday at least into early
Friday before chances for showers/storms move back in next weekend.
As of right now, nothing really to write home about with this next
system; severe parameters are lackluster, but will note that PWATs
look to rise to near/above an inch which could point to some decent
rainfall totals in storms.

Otherwise, look for temperatures to come in more or less seasonal
through the coming week with highs ranging generally in the 70s and
lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

METARs show airport minimum ceilings at all 3 sites and is
expected to occur at least on a temporary basis for the
overnight period as the already moist airmass continues to
cool. Around daybreak, skies SCT out and VFR conditions prevail
at CMX and IWD, with SAW breaking through a couple hours after
those terminals. If any SHRA is observed at SAW, it will only
be drizzle from moist upslope flow. Expect moistly northerly
winds to continue to gust to 15+kt at all terminals until
approaching high pressure brings winds to be light and variable
Sunday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Winds persist out of the SW ahead of a cold front this afternoon,
and some 20-25kt gusts are possible in the nearshore waters off of
the central and eastern Upper Peninsula due to downsloping.
Otherwise, winds are briefly falling back below 20kts across most of
the lake this afternoon. That said, showers and storms training
across the lake, ahead of the front, could produce erratic winds at
times. Plenty of lower level moisture is also producing fog, which
is dense at times. N to NW winds strengthen late tonight into
Sunday, with gusts generally up to 20-25kts. Winds fall back into
early next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     LSZ162-240>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...LC