![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
212 FXUS63 KMQT 041926 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 326 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance (15-30%) of showers/storms this afternoon roughly from Ironwood eastward to Manistique. - Widespread moderate rain expected late tonight into Friday evening. Some thunder possible. - While not a washout...scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return for Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 326 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 This afternoon, weak high pressure ridging remains over Upper Michigan ahead of another shortwave that is analyzed over the Dakotas. A couple waves of convection associated with this are moving through MN and into northern WI, and cirrus continues to stream into the UP from this upstream convection. Meanwhile, closer to home, the Superior lake breeze is quite apparent on radar, already heading well inland into the UP. So far, just agitated cu with this sporadically apparent on satellite beneath the cirrus deck, but weak radar returns are finally popping on the Lake Michigan boundary in the eastern UP. Will not rule out spotty shower activity (and perhaps some rumbles of thunder) along the lake boundaries, mainly across the central and eastern UP. Heading into the late afternoon and evening, spotty showers and storms currently across northern WI may be able to make it into the southern UP, but better chances for rain hold off until later tonight (more on that later). By then, with several hundred j/kg of CAPE, some thunder will be possible. Any thunderstorm could put down some gusty winds and a brief heavy downpour. Otherwise, winds remain on the lighter side, but may shift suddenly with the passing lake boundaries. Temperatures inland have been able to climb well into the 70s and even around 80F, but where onshore flow is having an impact, temperatures are hovering in the lower to mid 70s, even falling back into the 60s. Overnight, the shortwave moves over MN and into WI with a surface low closing off over central WI. Expect showers (with some thunder) to increase in coverage after midnight, mainly across the western UP as the surface low continues its eastward trek. There is a chance for some decent rainfall amounts at times in the resulting deformation zone; href ensembles note a potential (20-30% chance) for rainfall rates rainfall rates of a quarter-inch per hour in the heaviest downpours overnight. So, while not a washout, we could expect a widespread quarter to half-inch of rain over the western half of the UP, with some isolated spots seeing even higher amounts closer to an inch. Temperatures, meanwhile, stay fairly mild overnight with lows generally in the mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 An active weather period continues through the extended period as the cycle of shortwaves followed by high pressure ridging continues until around the middle to end of next week. More details follow below. Expect some showers and thunderstorms to make there way into the U.P. tonight as a shortwave low over the Northern Plains is phased with a low lifting from the Southern Plains. While the chances for rain look best along the Wisconsin border by the time fireworks start this evening, the rain chances look to continue increasing across the rest of the area late tonight as the low`s center moves through central Wisconsin. While a strong storm or two could be seen near the Wisconsin border this evening due to MUCAPEs possibly being as high as 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear possibly squeaking out as much as 30 knots, no severe weather is generally expected as the CAPE within the atmosphere looks to rapidly deplete as the sun sets. That being said, we could see some gusty winds, locally-heavy rain, and small hail in the strongest storms early on. Expect rain showers and a few thunderstorms to continue across the U.P. Friday as the low moves through northern Lake Michigan. CAMs are kind of all over the place right now with the rain coverage Friday. However, they are all showing that the rainfall will be on-and-off across the region Friday. Therefore, if you`ve got a quick outdoor activity that needs to be done Friday, you may have a few small windows of opportunity to do it. While flooding is not looking to be a concern tonight through Friday night, CAMs do show some heavier rain showers and thunderstorms occurring from time to time. Therefore, we could see some localized heavy rainfall at a few spots up to a couple of inches. With cloud cover hanging across the area and well-below normal temperatures aloft moving through, expect the high temperatures tomorrow to be notably cooler than today. This will be most noticeable in the west, where highs will struggle to get into the low to mid 60s. Meanwhile, highs may get close to 70 over in the east. The rain and thunderstorm chances depart the U.P. Friday night as the low lifts away through Lake Huron into Canada. Expect drier and more normal temperatures come Saturday as ridging builds in from the west. However, a shortwave low from the Canadian Prairies looks to bring additional rain showers and thunderstorms back over the area Sunday and Sunday night. Medium range guidance keeps this trend of shortwaves lows followed by high pressure ridging continuing through around the first half of this week. However, once we get to the end of the forecast period and beyond (last half of next week), we could see ridging remain over the area as high pressure builds over the Central CONUS. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR will prevail today at IWD/CMX/SAW. There a may be a shra/tsra late aftn/early evening around IWD and potentially SAW if anything can fire on the lake breeze, but potential of the terminal be impacted is too low to include anything in the TAF. Shra coverage will increase tonight across the w half of Upper MI as a low pres system moves ene into WI. Some tsra are also possible. With the increasing coverage of shra, conditions will deteriorate as well. Expect IWD/SAW to fall to IFR and CMX to MVFR. IFR ceilings may finally settle in at CMX into Friday morning. Winds will be light, under 10kt, thru this fcst period. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Light winds of 20 knots or less dominate the period as high pressure ridging gives way to low pressure shortwaves and vice versa over the next several days. That being said, we could see some thunderstorms over the lake during the times when shortwave lows move near/over the Upper Great Lakes, including this evening through Friday night and again Sunday through Sunday night. Ridging looks to become dominant over the Upper Great Lakes by the middle to end of next week as high pressure builds over the Central U.S. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...LC MARINE...TAP