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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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853 FXUS63 KMQT 040640 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 240 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance (~25%) of afternoon showers/storms across interior western Upper Michigan on Independence Day. - Widespread moderate rain expected late tonight into Friday evening. Some thunder possible. - While not a washout...scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return for Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 RAP analysis shows mainly zonal flow setting up over the area this afternoon as a closed low continues to move through northern Ontario, towards Hudson Bay. Over the Great Lakes, skies have been able to turn sunny with large-scale subsidence indicated in water vapor imagery. However, with diurnal mixing, plenty of agitated cumulus has popped off over the UP. This remains fairly well capped over the west, but cooler cloud tops are apparent in the eastern UP. This hints at a chance for some isolated to scattered showers and storms across the central and eastern UP as we head through the late afternoon and evening hours. Given only a few hundred j/kg of CAPE over the area, no severe weather is expected. Though any rain totals should be light for the most part, areas where multiple storms can move through could see QPF in excess of a quarter inch. This is most likely in Luce county, where the highest cloud tops are already developing (perhaps some lake breeze convergence?). Otherwise, temperatures are turning much warmer than yesterday, with most of the area already well into the 70s and lower 80s. The exception is in the eastern UP, where areas along Lake Michigan continue to struggle to get out of the 60s courtesy of onshore flow. Meanwhile, winds remain on the breezy side, with gusts up to 20mph common across the western half of the UP. Higher gusts in excess of 30mph continue to be observed at times across the Keweenaw. Winds should fall back as we head into the evening and the boundary layer decouples. Tonight, ridging will continue to strengthen over the forecast area, with any lingering convection over the eastern UP wrapping up by midnight. Outside of that, though, it will be a dry night with overnight lows generally in the 50s, low 60s to the south. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 An active weather period continues through the extended period as the cycle of shortwaves followed by high pressure ridging continues until around the middle to end of next week. More details follow below. Expect some showers and thunderstorms to make there way into the U.P. tonight as a shortwave low over the Northern Plains is phased with a low lifting from the Southern Plains. While the chances for rain look best along the Wisconsin border by the time fireworks start this evening, the rain chances look to continue increasing across the rest of the area late tonight as the low`s center moves through central Wisconsin. While a strong storm or two could be seen near the Wisconsin border this evening due to MUCAPEs possibly being as high as 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear possibly squeaking out as much as 30 knots, no severe weather is generally expected as the CAPE within the atmosphere looks to rapidly deplete as the sun sets. That being said, we could see some gusty winds, locally-heavy rain, and small hail in the strongest storms early on. Expect rain showers and a few thunderstorms to continue across the U.P. Friday as the low moves through northern Lake Michigan. CAMs are kind of all over the place right now with the rain coverage Friday. However, they are all showing that the rainfall will be on-and-off across the region Friday. Therefore, if you`ve got a quick outdoor activity that needs to be done Friday, you may have a few small windows of opportunity to do it. While flooding is not looking to be a concern tonight through Friday night, CAMs do show some heavier rain showers and thunderstorms occurring from time to time. Therefore, we could see some localized heavy rainfall at a few spots up to a couple of inches. With cloud cover hanging across the area and well-below normal temperatures aloft moving through, expect the high temperatures tomorrow to be notably cooler than today. This will be most noticeable in the west, where highs will struggle to get into the low to mid 60s. Meanwhile, highs may get close to 70 over in the east. The rain and thunderstorm chances depart the U.P. Friday night as the low lifts away through Lake Huron into Canada. Expect drier and more normal temperatures come Saturday as ridging builds in from the west. However, a shortwave low from the Canadian Prairies looks to bring additional rain showers and thunderstorms back over the area Sunday and Sunday night. Medium range guidance keeps this trend of shortwaves lows followed by high pressure ridging continuing through around the first half of this week. However, once we get to the end of the forecast period and beyond (last half of next week), we could see ridging remain over the area as high pressure builds over the Central CONUS. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 124 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Expect VFR conditions at the terminals through 00Z Friday. VFR prevails for the forecast period. A low pressure system lifting up from Wisconsin will likely bring in some showers along with lower MVFR to possible IFR conditions to IWD late in the period (03-06Z Friday). Showers and MVFR conditions could also reach into CMX and SAW as well toward the end of the period but timing is more uncertain. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Light winds of 20 knots or less dominate the period as high pressure ridging gives way to low pressure shortwaves and vice versa over the next several days. That being said, we could see some thunderstorms over the lake during the times when shortwave lows move near/over the Upper Great Lakes, including this evening through Friday night and again Sunday through Sunday night. Ridging looks to become dominant over the Upper Great Lakes by the middle to end of next week as high pressure builds over the Central U.S. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...Voss MARINE...TAP