788
FXUS63 KMPX 081931
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
231 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated afternoon showers & thunderstorms through Wednesday.

- Hot & humid this weekend with heat indices around 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon with the
most widespread coverage across western Wisconsin & coverage
gradually becoming more isolated as one hoes west across
Minnesota. Deep shear is practically non-existent, but
1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE means a few of the strongest storms could
contain small hail & brief gusty winds. Rainfall amounts could
reach around an inch in some spots across western Wisconsin
where multiple thunderstorms could hit the same locations,
otherwise brief downpours could result in a quick 0.10-0.25" of
rain.

More of the same weather continues through Wednesday as an Upper
Level low sits over the Great Lakes and provides enough upper
level forcing for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
precipitation chances begin to diminish Thursday & Friday as
the upper level low moves off to the east & heights rise in its
wake - leading to a gradual warming trend into the upper 80s
through week.

The real warm temperatures come this weekend, as strong ridging
over the southwest CONUS begins to build into the central
plains & Upper Midwest. NBM median temperatures are generally in
the upper 80s to low 90s Saturday & Sunday, with the 90th
percentile highlighting chances for some mid to upper 90s
across western Minnesota. Dew point temperatures will also be on
the rise, especially on Sunday, which could result in heat
indices approaching 100 degrees and may warrant the need for
Heat Advisories this weekend. A complication in the temperature
forecast will be the chance for thunderstorms & remnant cloud
cover during the day, with the weekend chance for precipitation
looking best Saturday morning as a weak shortwave moves through
the region.

Looking ahead into next week, the ridge axis shifts more to the
west which will keep us in generally warmer temperatures, but
could place the region under another "ring of fire" pattern
where multiple thunderstorm complexes track along the northern
periphery of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A few isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms have already
popped up early this afternoon. This is expected to continue
through sunset, but the highest confidence in coverage lies
across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Activity will
diminish around sunset with VFR conditions and calm to light and
variable winds returning through the remainder of the period.
There is a possibility of fog developing out at EAU by early
tomorrow morning.

KMSP...As mentioned above, confidence in coverage of any -TSRA
is focused more to the east of MSP, but a few returns are
showing up over the metro. Went ahead with a VCTS and PROB30
combo to over the widely scattered nature through this evening.
Otherwise, no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, chc pm -TS. Wind NE 5kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Dye