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Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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357 AWUS01 KWNH 031831 FFGMPD NMZ000-AZZ000-040000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0546 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 231 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...Southeastern AZ...Southwest & Western NM... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 031830Z - 040000Z SUMMARY...Slow moving monsoon thunderstorms capable of .75-1"/hr rates and spots of 1-1.5" may pose possible widely scattered incidents of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...Overall meteorological conditions continue to downtrend relative to prior days; however, lingering above average low level moisture, full insolation and favorable mid to upper level orientation within the gap between two ridges and modest outflow channel to the northeast across NM should spur widely scattered thunderstorms in the next few hours. GOES-E satellite suite shows an old MCV across northwest Chihuahua with downstream deformation zone providing solid cloud cover diminishing insolation there. To the west, peripheral enhanced moisture still resides in SE AZ in the upper 50s to low 60s Tds and total PWats near 1.25" especially along/the southern most counties of SE AZ/SW NM. RAP analysis shows a trough of cooler temps at 5H across NE to east-central AZ, aiding cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates. This is also supporting northwesterly flow aiding convergence with southerly/southwesterly flow across SE AZ toward the Black Mountain range. As such, instability is increasing with pockets of up to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE along the northwest edge of the mid-level cloud cover. Upslope mountain flow is starting to result in increased convective development on the peaks; eventually this will expand off peak and reach deeper moisture inflow to support .75-1"/hr rates toward peak heating in 2-3 hours. Steering flow is weak in the larger scale mid-level trough, but with limited organization; pulse convection is likely the main mode and should result in some spots of 1-1.5" through 00z; but in a widely scattered to scattered nature. Given the grounds are saturated (where it isn`t barren rock), run-off should be above average, especially over SE AZ where precipitation anomalies are 400-600% of normal and soil conditions are in the upper 5th percentiles. Though with more conditional organization to cells, slightly reduced moisture (and localized flux) than prior days, flash flooding is considered possible in that widely scatter-shot distribution along and northwest in the MPD area of concern. Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC... ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34390764 33640728 32750763 31420823 31260950 31251094 31521171 31971165 32541108 32941067 33450997 34000967 34070878