371
FXUS64 KMOB 040500
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Another round of low stratus/patchy fog may reduce ceilings to
MVFR thresholds or lower over inland areas early Thursday morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail outside of convection on
Thursday where local reductions to ceilings and visibilities will
occur. Light southeasterly to southerly winds will continue
through the forecast. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

An upper level ridge will remain in place over the Southeastern US
through Thursday. This will help to maintain the very hot
conditions in the near term. Plenty of moisture layer will also
continue to usher into the area thanks to southerly flow at the
surface with PWATs ranging from 2-2.4 inches through the period.
We`ve seen scattered showers and a few thunderstorms develop this
afternoon across the area as a weak surface trough lingers. Storm
motions have been rather slow given weak flow aloft which has
resulted in a few localized spots picking up a quick 1-2+ inches
of rain this afternoon. This activity should dissipate through the
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures are not at
bad as they were yesterday (currently upper 80s and lower 90s),
but that doesn`t mean it`s not hot and humid out there. Dew points
are generally in the mid and upper 70s, but there are currently a
few areas where observations are reporting dew points around 80
degrees. The hot temperatures and high humidity has caused heat
index values to rise into the 105-110 degree range, and a Heat
Advisory remains in effect until 7pm this evening for all areas
given these conditions. Warm and muggy conditions will carry into
tonight with low temperatures ranging from the middle 70s inland
to around 80 degrees at the beaches.

The hot and stormy conditions will persist into the Independence
Day Holiday as the overall synoptic pattern remains the same.
Rain chances will likely begin to increase along the coast
Thursday morning before spreading inland through the afternoon.
Coverage overall should remain scattered to locally numerous at
times. A few storms storms could also produce locally heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Similar to today,
it will be hot and humid outside of any convection with heat index
values expected to reach into the 105-110 degree range. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect across the entire area from 10am until
7pm Thursday.

The rip current risk remains low in the near term. However, it
will begin to ramp up later this week as long period swell
reaches the northern Gulf. /14

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The upper-level ridge which has been over the Deep South through
much of the week is expected to flatten and push to the east
beginning Saturday and into the weekend as an upper trough swings
into the Great Lakes region. With the ridge becoming situated more
over northeast Florida/southeast Georgia over the weekend, upper-
level flow will become southerly to southwesterly across our
local region. At the surface, a frontal boundary is still expected
to move into portions of northern Alabama/Mississippi on
Saturday, however, it should stall to the north of our CWA and
then linger in place through early next week. Over our area,
surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic continues
to ridge back west into our area through the period. With this,
we will continue to be looking at a mostly typical summer pattern,
with the land/seabreeze circulation being the dominant surface
features at play each day.

Looking at rain chances, we will continue a typical diurnal
pattern to convection through the period, with scattered showers
and storms expected during the early morning hours (mainly along
coastal counties and over the marine zones), followed by scattered
to locally numerous showers and storms developing during the
afternoon and early evening hours (mainly over inland areas). Some
days will have more coverage than others, but at this time it
appears that Friday and Saturday will be the wettest days of the
period. The reason for this uptick is due to the approach of the
aforementioned frontal boundary which will stall to our north,
daytime heating and sea breeze interactions all working together
for a somewhat active diurnal convective pattern.

With the diurnal convective pattern mentioned above the overall
temperature/heat index forecast is somewhat complicated. Areas
that see a later start to convective initiation will likely see
their highs reach the low to mid 90s. Dew points will also remain
in the mid to upper 70s, which will lead to heat indices in the
105 to 112 degree range, ultimately resulting in the need for
continued Heat Advisory issuances. However, if we see storms fire
earlier than anticipated and become more widespread in coverage,
then it may be difficult for some areas to actually reach these
values. Nighttime lows will be in the low to mid 70s over inland
areas through the period, but mid to upper 70s nearer to the
coast. A few locations very near the coast could see low temps
remain in the lower 80s. All in all, this uncertainty is leading
to a lower confidence temperature forecast, which will become
further refined over the coming days. DS/12

BEACH HAZARDS...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place through the 4th of
July holiday, however, the rip current risk looks to increase by
Friday and especially into the post-holiday weekend. This is due
to the approach of a long period swell (on the order of 15-17
seconds) produced by Hurricane Beryl shoots north through the
Yucatan Channel as the hurricane moves into the western Caribbean
Sea and eventually into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This
swell packet will likely reach the northern Gulf coast Friday
morning. We currently have a MODERATE Risk of rip currents along
our beaches for Friday then increasing to a HIGH Risk Friday night
and continuing through the weekend. It is quite likely that we
will upgrade the risk for Friday to a HIGH Risk as well. In
addition to the rip current risk, this swell packet will likely
lead to increasing surf conditions Friday through Sunday, with
beach erosion problems and wave run-up issues at the beaches
(especially problematic at vulnerable spots like the west end of
Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens) by Friday into Saturday. Some salt
water flooding of these areas is possible, and although tide
levels are not expected to be significantly above normal along our
coast, we will likely issue Coastal Flood Advisory sometime on
Thursday to highlight this potential for the normally vulnerable
areas. We still have some time to watch the trends, and make
adjustments as need, but do want to note that late this week and
over the weekend could potentially be very dangerous at the local
beaches. Based on this weekend having lots of additional visitors
to the area around the holiday, we want to continue to stress this
danger potential. DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

No impacts are expected over the marine areas other than locally
higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  91  76  92  76  92  75  93 /  20  60  10  60  30  60  20  50
Pensacola   79  91  78  91  78  92  77  92 /  20  50  10  50  30  70  30  50
Destin      80  91  80  91  80  91  80  91 /  20  50  10  50  30  60  30  50
Evergreen   74  94  75  94  74  92  73  94 /  20  50  10  70  30  60  20  50
Waynesboro  75  93  75  93  73  90  72  94 /  20  60  10  70  40  70  20  50
Camden      74  93  75  92  73  90  72  93 /  20  50  10  70  40  60  20  50
Crestview   74  95  75  95  75  95  74  95 /  10  50  10  50  20  60  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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