074
FXUS64 KMOB 050455
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1154 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Some patches of fog will be possible overnight, and MVFR
conditions will be possible with showers and storms which will
have the best coverage during Friday afternoon. Light and variable
winds overnight become southwesterly 5 to 10 knots on Friday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024/

UPDATE...
Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Current convection over the area is steadily diminishing, so have
updated to just have slight chance pops early this evening then
dry conditions follow for much of the remainder of the night. The
only exception will be for generally small rain chances to return
to part of the coastal areas during the early morning hours. Made
other minor changes. /29

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Spotty convection diminishes and ends early this evening leaving
dry conditions for much of the remainder of the night except for
some convection developing near the coast in the early morning
hours. Showers and storms become likely across the area on Friday.
VFR conditions generally prevail except for MVFR conditions with
the stronger storms and also for some patchy late night fog. Light
southerly or southwesterly winds become light and variable
overnight, then a southerly flow at 5 to 10 knots develops on
Friday. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A persistence forecast continues through Friday. Continued hot and
muggy conditions with scattered to numerous diurnal showers and
storms through Friday. Dangerous rip currents will become likely
along area beaches Friday and continue through the weekend. We will
also be monitoring for potential for wave runup, beach erosion, and
perhaps some flooding along vulnerable lower lying coastal locations
as long period swell associated with distant Hurricane Beryl arrives
along the northern Gulf coast beaches Friday morning into Friday
afternoon. These beach hazards will persist into the weekend. We
already have highlighted a HIGH Risk of rip currents along the AL
and northwest FL beaches beginning Friday, and we will be issuing a
Coastal Flood Advisory later today for the potential of some salt
water flooding due to wave run-up issues at some of our especially
problematic at vulnerable spots along our Gulf front beaches. While
coastal flooding in the general sense, due to above normal tides, is
not expected there could be some run-up issues that cause some
problems at a few of our more vulnerable areas, i.e. the west end
of Dauphin Island and around the Fort Pickens area. A more
detailed discussion of this is included in a special BEACH HAZARD
section that we have added to this Discussion.

Otherwise, an upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to
stretch across the Deep South through Friday afternoon. Hot and very
humid conditions will persist across our forecast area underneath
this feature through the end of the week. Afternoon high
temperatures on Friday should again generally range between 90-95
degrees, with dewpoints holding in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.
This will continue to result in maximum heat index readings between
105-110 degrees over much of our region again on Friday.  A Heat
Advisory remains in effect today until 7 pm and we plan on issuing
another heat Advisory for our entire forecast area on Friday with
this afternoon`s forecast package. A very moist airmass will remain
entrenched across our forecast area underneath the ridge axis
through Friday afternoon, with precipitable water values continuing
to average between 2-2.4 inches. Scattered to locally numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms are again expected. Lingering
convection this evening will end, but more showers and storms will
likely regenerate near the coast and over the Gulf late tonight, and
then become more numerous over inland areas again on Friday
afternoon (generally again in the 50 to 60 percent range). There is
some question as to coverage of precip on Friday as a weak surface
trough axis/boundary slips southward into interior portions of
southeast MS/southwest AL, and PoPs may turn out to need to be a
little higher, so we will monitor model trends on this. No severe
weather is anticipated, although the regular, isolated strong storm
can`t be ruled out. As has been the case over the past few days, the
storms will continue to be relatively slow movers as well, so
localized heavy rainfall and the potential for some minor localized
flooding will be present. DS/12

BEACH HAZARDS...

We still expect that the rip current risk will ramp up considerably
during the day Friday and into the holiday weekend as long period
swell (on the order of 15-17 seconds) associated with distant
Hurricane Beryl shoots north through the Yucatan Channel as the
hurricane moves into the western Caribbean Sea and eventually into
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This swell packet still looks to
reach the northern Gulf coast by late Friday morning. The
combination of the high period swell and large tidal ranges with
tide outgoing during the afternoon/evening will favor the
development of dangerous rip currents Friday through the weekend.
We now have a HIGH rip current risk in place along the Alabama and
western Florida panhandle beaches Friday through Sunday night.

The arrival of the swell packet will also likely lead to increasing
beach erosion problems and possible wave run-up issues at the Gulf
front beaches (especially problematic and vulnerable areas like the
west end of Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens) by midday Friday into
Saturday night. Some localized minor salt water flooding of these
areas could be possible, and although tide levels are not expected
to be significantly above normal along our coast and NO coastal
flooding in the general sense (due to  above normal tides) is
expected, the wave run-up issues could cause some problems at the
vulnerable areas noted above. With this, we have issued a
precautionary Coastal Flood Advisory to highlight this potential
for the normally vulnerable areas noted. DS/12

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Weak upper level ridging remains centered over the eastern Gulf
through the weekend as an upper trough lingers over the central
US. A weak surface front will push into northern portions of
Alabama and Mississippi over the weekend before stalling. Plenty
of moisture will be in place through the weekend with PWATs around
2-2.5 inches. This pattern will continue to support daily chances
for showers and storms with convection following a typical diurnal
pattern. As we head into early next week, the upper ridging will
begin to strengthen somewhat. Moisture will still remain entrenched
underneath the ridge so we`ll continue to see summer time storms
into early next week with coverage remaining mostly scattered to
perhaps locally numerous at times. Conditions will remain very
warm and humid through the period with high temperatures rising
into the lower and middle 90s each day. Heat index values will
likely be near or above advisory criteria for a good chunk of the
period and heat advisories may be needed on any given day,
particularly if convective coverage trends lower. Overnight lows
won`t provide much relief with values dropping only into the lower
to middle 70`s inland with upper 70`s to lower 80`s near the
coast. Please refer to the beach hazards section above for
details on the potential for dangerous rip currents and coastal
flooding concerns as we head into the weekend. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

MARINE...A light southwest to west flow pattern will prevail
through the holiday weekend. Long period swells associated with
distant Hurricane Beryl will arrive into the marine area on Friday
and persist into the weekend. Winds and seas will be locally higher
near scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise no hazards to
small craft are expected. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  92  76  92  76  92  76  92 /  10  70  40  70  30  60  30  60
Pensacola   79  92  78  91  78  92  78  91 /  10  70  40  60  40  70  40  70
Destin      80  91  80  91  80  91  80  90 /  10  60  40  60  40  70  40  60
Evergreen   75  94  74  93  73  93  73  92 /  10  60  50  70  20  70  30  70
Waynesboro  75  93  73  91  73  92  73  94 /  10  70  50  60  10  60  20  60
Camden      74  94  73  91  72  92  72  92 /  10  60  60  60  20  50  30  70
Crestview   75  94  75  94  74  94  73  93 /  10  70  30  70  30  70  30  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
     ALZ265-266.

     High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for FLZ201>206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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