994
FXUS64 KMOB 022109
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

An upper level ridge will remain in place over the Southeastern US
through Wednesday while deep layer moisture remains abundant thanks
to southerly flow at the surface. A few showers and storms have
developed along the coast this afternoon where the seabreeze is
interacting with a lingering surface boundary. This activity should
dissipate through the evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Temperatures have been very hot today, and we`ve actually seen heat
index values in a few localized areas briefly approaching near Heat
Warning criteria. A Heat Advisory therefore remains in effect for
all counties except for Butler and Crenshaw in Alabama (where dew
points are keeping heat index values below 108 degrees) until 7pm.
Warm and muggy conditions will carry into tonight with low
temperatures ranging from the middle 70s inland to the lower 80s at
the beaches.

Rain chances will begin to increase early Wednesday morning across
our coastal and southern zones as a subtle impulse slides along the
southern periphery of the lingering upper ridge. This impulse aloft
combined with the weak boundary at the surface and increasing
moisture will aid in the development of scattered to locally
numerous showers and storms in the southern areas before spreading
inland through the afternoon. Some storms could produce locally
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. The increased
rain chances and cloud cover will result in high temperatures being
a couple of degrees cooler than today, with values expected to peak
in the lower to middle 90s. However, it will still be very humid
outside of any storms and heat index values are forecast to reach
into the 105-110 degree range on Wednesday. Another Heat Advisory
has been issued for this potential across the entire area from 10am
until 7pm on Wednesday.

The rip current risk remains low in the near term. However, it will
begin to ramp up later this week. /14

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

An expansive upper-level ridge centered directly over the Deep
South at the start of the period will linger in place through at
least Friday. By Saturday, an upper trough swinging into the Great
Lakes region will allow for the ridge to flatten and push to the
east, likely becoming situated over the western Atlantic just off
the coast of Georgia and South Carolina by Monday and Tuesday.
This will allow for upper flow to gain a more southwesterly
component by Friday with a few embedded shortwave impulses moving
within this flow.

Looking at the surface, high pressure ridges into the area from
the east through most of the period, with the summertime
land/seabreeze circulation likely being the dominant surface
feature at play over the local area. This combined with daytime
heating will maintain a diurnal shower and thunderstorm pattern,
with scattered showers and storms expected across the area each
day, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. The NBM wants
to put likely pops (60-70 percent) over the area each day, but as
the previous shift noted, not overly confident in that happening
with the upper ridge sitting directly overhead. Plenty of
moisture, instability, and forcing along the sea breeze should
help to spark isolated showers and storms during the morning
(mainly along coastal counties and over the marine zones),
followed by scattered coverage in the afternoon (mainly over
inland areas) each day. So, we have generally capped afternoon
PoPs at 30-50 percent during the first half of the long term
period due to the aforementioned uncertainty. By the weekend and
into early next week, have ticked afternoon rain chances up
slightly (up to 40-60 percent) as the ridge moves off to our east
and weakens slightly, and with the weak impulses passing overhead
within southwesterly flow aloft. As is the case with summertime
pulse- type convection, although severe storms are generally not
expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will
be possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to
develop.

Outside of daily storm chances, it will be remain hot thanks to the
close proximity of the ridge. Highs will generally be in the low 90s
along the coast and the mid 90s inland (some interior areas could
even reach the upper 90s). With dew points likely to remain in
the mid to upper 70s, heat indices are forecast to rise into the
105 to 112 degree range each day prior to the onset of thunderstorms.
Therefore, we will likely have multiple days of Heat Advisories
across much of the area. Lows will not provide much relief,
further exacerbating the overall heat risk to the local area as
temperatures each night look to drop only into the mid to upper
70s, with low 80s along the coast. DS/12

&&

.BEACH Hazards...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place for the 4th of July
holiday, however, the rip current risk looks to increase by Friday
and especially into the post-holiday weekend. This will be due to
a long period (on the order of 15 seconds) swell shooting up
through the Yucatan Channel and north across the Gulf as
Hurricane Beryl move into the western Caribbean. In addition to
the rip current risk, the swell will likely lead to increasing
surf conditions, beach erosion problems, and wave run- up issues
at the beaches (especially problematic at vulnerable spots like
the west end of Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens) by Friday into
Saturday. We still have plenty of time to watch the trends over
the coming days, but next weekend has the potential to be very
dangerous at the local beaches. Based on next weekend having lots
of additional visitors around the holiday, we want to continue to
stress this potential. DS/12

&&


.MARINE...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

No impacts are expected over the marine areas other than locally
higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      78  91  76  92  76  94  76  94 /  30  70  10  50  10  50  20  60
Pensacola   79  90  77  90  77  92  78  93 /  40  70  20  50  10  50  20  60
Destin      80  90  80  90  80  91  80  91 /  40  70  20  50  20  50  20  50
Evergreen   75  92  74  94  74  95  74  93 /  30  70  10  50  10  50  30  60
Waynesboro  76  94  74  94  75  95  74  94 /  20  60  10  50  10  50  30  60
Camden      75  92  73  93  75  95  74  92 /  20  60  10  50  10  50  30  60
Crestview   75  93  74  94  74  95  75  96 /  30  60  10  50  10  50  20  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>056-059-060-
     261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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