840
FXUS62 KMLB 051126
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
726 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR forecast outside of storms. The sea breeze pattern will
continue with scat`d afternoon showers/storms inland. VCSH begins
for all sites at 17Z. VCTS starts at 19Z for inland locations
with TEMPO TSRA between 19Z-23Z. Shower/storm chances diminish
after sunset. Light and variable winds during the overnight/morning
increase from the E at 5-10kts into the afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...An extended period of above-normal temperatures continues
through this holiday weekend. Residents and visitors will need to
take extra precautions to prevent heat-related illness...

...Daily chances for showers and lightning storms will be higher
over interior sections, much lower along the coast today and
Saturday. Storm coverage will increase early next week...

Current-Tonight...Warm, humid and dry early this morning across
ECFL. Skies are PCloudy with light/variable to calm winds. Weak
surface high pressure ridging is across the region. Ridging
continues aloft with warm H500 temps around -4.0C. PWAT values
1.80-2.00 inches along the coast and 2.00-2.40 inches well into
the interior. A weak pressure gradient pattern will continue at
the surface. Light morning winds will transition onshore and the
ECSB will move well inland during the afternoon and early evening.
A small threat for convection will exist along the coast with
greatest chances (40-50pct) across the interior this afternoon and
early evening. Storm steering flow remains light out of the
north. Primary storm threats remain occasional to frequent
lightning strikes, brief gusty winds of 35 to 45 mph locally, and
torrential downpours which could cause minor flooding concerns. As
convection diminishes in the early-mid evening (or pushes west of
the area), expect mostly dry conditions overnight.

Temperatures will remain hot with conditions muggy. Afternoon maxes
forecast near 90F to L90s near the coast and L-M90s inland. Peak
afternoon heat indices forecast 102-107F, except could reach
108-110F over much of the interior, with highest values generally
west of I-95. A Heat Advisory goes in effect at 12pm thru 6pm,
again today, for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Okeechobee and
interior Indian River/St. Lucie/Martin counties. Overnight mins
remain warm and sultry and in the M-U70s for most.

Sat-Sun...A persistent pattern continues with ridging/warm temps
aloft. At the surface, very warm temperatures and muggy conditions
will continue with afternoon highs in the L-M90s (highest inland)
and peak heat indices 102-107+. Will consider additional heat
advisories as necessary. Overnight mins in the 70s. There will be a
daily sea breeze with diurnal shower/lightning storm chances, though
highest likely focused (well) inland.

Mon-Thu...Some weakening of the mid/upper level ridging is forecast
though temperatures aloft (H500) do not improve by more than a
degree or two (-4.5C to -6.0C). PWATs remain soupy (> 2.00 inches)
thru much of the period. The pressure gradient remains weak with
a daily sea breeze moving inland. Storm steering flow light S/SSW
Mon-Thu. Continue a 50-60% PoP in the afternoon/early evening
period. Highs in the U80s to L90s each day with lows in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions continue thru the holiday
weekend and into early next week. Seas mainly 2-3 ft. The pressure
gradient will remain fairly weak supporting a daily sea breeze
regime. Outside of this, winds likely to be light/variable and
generally AOB 10 kts. ISOLD-SCT showers and lightning storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  76  92  76 /  20  10  30  10
MCO  94  76  95  76 /  50  20  50  10
MLB  91  76  91  77 /  30  10  30  10
VRB  91  75  92  76 /  30  10  30  10
LEE  94  78  95  78 /  50  30  50  20
SFB  94  76  95  77 /  50  20  40  10
ORL  94  76  95  78 /  50  20  50  10
FPR  91  74  92  76 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ044>046-053-058-144-254-259-264.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Fehling