007
FXUS62 KMLB 041727
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
127 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions prevail outside of afternoon-evening SH/TS. ECSB
has pushed east of the coastal terminals, with just ISO SH INVOF
KDAB and KTIX, which will push inland. ISO SH developing inland
of the ECSB, and ISO-SCT SH to the north pushing south into ECFL,
INVOF KLEE. Except coverage to increase southward through the
rest of the afternoon, with TEMPOs for TS impacts at inland
terminals starting 19Z-20Z and running through 22Z-23Z. A few
TS/SH could linger as late as 02Z. With light surface flow winds
remain VRB until the ECSB reaches the terminals, then becoming
light again overnight. Rinse and repeat Thursday for the most
part, with just a few small timing differences in TS/SH and the
ECSB.



&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Early morning Cape sounding shows a pocket of drier air between
850-925mb with slightly lower precip water values of 1.88". This
should produce a slower development of the cumulus cloud field
until that drier pocket can get mixed out. GOES-16 PW product
shows deeper moisture across our north/interior sections and this
will be the focus for aftn/eve storms. Sfc analysis shows a very
weak pressure gradient over the area supporting light and variable
winds which will turn East behind the inland moving sea breeze.

Did not need to make significant changes to the forecast for
today. Agree that the lowest rain chances will be along the coast
esp south of the Cape where isolated showers are possible thru
early aftn. Convective initiation should occur across northern
sections (Lake/Volusia) this afternoon with a north steering flow
producing southward cell motions. So the highest PoPs (60%) are
over the north/interior. Storm motion may occasionally be erratic
due to propagation along sea, lake, outflow boundaries but
generally should be toward the south. Heat Advisory will be in
effect through the aftn for peak heat indices 105-110.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions are
forecast, outside of daytime isolated/scattered showers and
lightning storms. Light and variable winds persist through midday,
increasing up to 10 kt and turning onshore with the sea breeze
circulation this afternoon. Seas 2-3 ft, perhaps up to 4 ft well
offshore. Winds slacken and veer offshore tonight.

Friday-Monday...Seas remain 2-4 ft thru the extended forecast.
Winds turn out of the NNE Friday and Saturday mornings, veering
onshore each afternoon and then offshore at night. Rain and
lightning storm chances continue but decrease temporarily for the
first half of the weekend. Southerly flow and increased moisture
returns Sunday and Monday, helping to expand rain coverage into
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  92  75  93 /  10  20  10  30
MCO  77  93  76  95 /  30  60  10  40
MLB  78  91  76  92 /  10  30  10  30
VRB  76  91  75  92 /  10  30  10  40
LEE  78  95  77  95 /  30  60  10  50
SFB  77  94  76  95 /  20  40  10  40
ORL  78  94  77  95 /  30  60  10  40
FPR  76  91  76  92 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Haley