067
FXUS62 KMHX 041714
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
114 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push offshore tonight and then remain
centered off the coast through this weekend. Oppressive heat
and humidity return this weekend as well as chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 1 PM Thurs... No significant changes to the forecast on
this update.

TODAY: Warm day on tap with highs in the low-mid 90s inland,
80s for beaches. Dry forecast and light south winds with the
high pressure centered to our east. This southerly flow will
also usher in more moisture, with Heat Indices near 100 degrees
inland. Diurnal cumulus field will develop once again in the
late morning to early afternoon and overspread the entire CWA
until the seabreeze can develop and push the cloud field further
inland. An area of weak isentropic lift along a pre frontal
trough will be located in central NC, approaching us towards the
end of the near term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...Prefrontal trough moves through the
region overnight. 6Z CAMs show the line of showers breaking up
at our doorstep, with wide uncertainty on if they make it into
our CWA. Instability will be meager at best when the greatest
forcing moves through, and despite PWATs over 2", it is likely
any showers and thunderstorms moving in from our west dissipate
before reaching the western portions of the CWA. Slightly
increased PoPs for northern portions of the CWA where the
greatest forcing resides, but PoPs still remain at or below 20%.
Unfortunately this trough will not do much to alleviate the
drought conditions occuring in the coastal plain. Lows are a bit
higher, in the low-mid 70s inland and mid 70s for beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Thu...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this
  weekend
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly diurnally driven,
  return this weekend into next week

Our most impactful weather likely occurs Friday into the
weekend as oppressive heat and humidity sets up across the
Southeast once again. Upper ridging will remain overhead,
while at the surface, high pressure will remain anchored
offshore allowing SSW flow and deeper moisture to return to the
area. Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing
for oppressive heat and humidity to return. High temps will soar
into the mid to upper 90s inland, upper 80s to low 90s for the
beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s.
This will likely lead to heat index values peaking at 105-110
deg for many areas, esp Fri and Sat.

A cold front will approach the area this weekend and early next
week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area, while
weak upper low offshore drifts towards the SE coast. This
boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in
shower/tstm development. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and
waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep
mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast this
weekend into next week. Will continue to cap pops at chance.
At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit
overall svr threat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Friday/...
As of 115 PM Thurs...Latest obs across ENC show a mix of high
cirrus and diurnal Cu this afternoon. Ceilings across the
Coastal Plain remain VFR with heights around 3.5-5 kft. Light
S-SE`rly winds are currently noted but as a seabreeze develops
expect at least a brief period of gusty SSE`rly winds primarily
across terminals closer to the coast (EWN/OAJ) with gusts up
around 15-20 kts later today. Otherwise ENC primarily remains
dry thru this afternoon. However, as we get towards sunset and
the early evening hours shower and thunderstorm activity is
forecast to enter into the Coastal Plain from the west in
association with a trough across the Piedmont. Latest Hi-Res
guidance only suggests a 10-20% chance of precip occuring
across the Coastal Plain as much if not all of the activity
should be dissipating as it nears the area, but kept VCSH in PGV
where there is a ~20% chance of the showers and/or
thunderstorms persisting as they move eastward. Whether showers
dissipate or not, there will be an increase in cloud cover
Thursday night, although current expectation is for ceilings to
be VFR. There is a 10-20% chance of MVFR ceilings developing. As
a result kept in a FEW/SCT deck at 3kft across the western
terminals where best chance for lower ceilings exist. If lower
ceilings down develop then light winds and VFR conditions are
forecast for the remainder of the period.

LONG TERM /Friday afternoon through Tuesday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend and
early next week, which could bring periods of sub-VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...Pleasant boating conditions continue
over area waters as high pressure, centered off the coast,
extends southward over the Carolinas. Ongoing 5 to 15 kt
S/SE`rly breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas will continue to persist
over our waters through Thursday. Thursday night winds veer to
become SW`rly, but remain 5-15kts.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Typical summertime pattern expected through
the period with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc
trough inland. SSW winds 10-20 kt expected Fri into Sat,
strongest during the late afternoon and evening. There is
potential for a brief period of 25 kt gusts late Fri afternoon
and Fri night, which could bring SCA conditions. S-SE winds 5-15
kt Sun and Mon. Seas generally 2-4 ft through the period, with
potential for 5 ft across the outer waters Fri night into Sat.
May continue to see longer period swells from very distant
Hurricane Beryl through Fri, though should have little impact on
wave heights.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RJ