Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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808 FXUS62 KMFL 112316 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 716 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 707 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Looking at the heat index values earlier today and the expected temps/index values for Monday, will go ahead and issue another heat advisory for Monday since confidence is high enough attm. Collier county areas could see heat index values of up to 110 before afternoon showers and deep convection materializes. Advisory is again valid from 10am through 6pm Monday. Thunderstorms still linger around the Lake region and along a southward line down to coastal Mainland Monroe. But with sea breeze and daytime heating circulations now over, any remaining rain and storms should gradually dissipate through the next hour or so. Then expect another warm night with morning lows in the mid-upper 70s, or even low 80s along the coasts. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Very warm and humid conditions continue across South Florida as the Bermuda High builds and extends over the area. Plentiful moisture (PWAT values around 2-2.2 inches) will support scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, generally focusing over interior and Gulf Coast as low-level flow has switched to out of the east-southeast. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. The main story this afternoon will be the warm temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices of 105-110. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of South Florida through 6PM. It`s worth noting that some areas could escape the extreme heat, especially portions of the East Coast metro where the southeasterly breeze could bring some relief, and areas over the interior where the showers and thunderstorms could help cool things down. The setup remains pretty similar on Monday as the high continues to expand over the region. A pocket of Saharan dust will approach the peninsula in the afternoon, ushering in somewhat drier conditions to start the week. This will help knock PWAT values down to more seasonable averages (1.7-1.9 inches). There will be enough low level moisture and convergence to support a few early morning showers along the east coast, with afternoon showers thunderstorms chances being reduced from recent days due to the weak SAL as well as increased subsidence. The best chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be over the interior and Gulf Coast areas. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Expansive mid level ridging over the region as well as surface high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida through the middle of the week. At the same time, a weak Saharan Dust plume will try to bring some relatively drier air across the mid levels on Tuesday before gradually thinning out on Wednesday. With a weak east to southeasterly wind flow in place during this time frame, the east coast sea breeze will be able to push further inland. While there will be enough lower level moisture to support shower and thunderstorm development along the sea breeze boundaries as they push inland, convective coverage will be somewhat limited due to the drier air aloft. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain over the interior and west coast each afternoon through the middle of the week. High temperatures will soar into the lower to mid 90s across most areas with heat indices generally ranging between 105-110 during this time frame. Heading towards the second half of the week, the weather pattern will begin to change as an amplifying mid level trough off to the northwest digs down through the Southeast and into the western Atlantic. This will cause the mid level ridge over the region to break down and retrograde back off to the west into the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, this will cause a weakening frontal boundary to approach the region from the north. Uncertainty increases in this part of the forecast as the latest guidance tries to bring the boundary into the region and either stall it out near South Florida, or push it just to the south of the region by the end of the week. Out ahead of this frontal boundary, moisture advection will take place which will gradually increase the convection coverage over South Florida for Thursday and Friday. With a relatively weak wind flow in place, the daily sea breezes will push towards the interior and convection coverage will be maximized over these areas where the sea breeze boundaries collide each afternoon through Friday. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will generally remain in the lower 90s across most areas. Depending on how far south the weakening frontal boundary pushes, some relatively drier air may try to work into the region on a northeasterly wind flow heading into the first part of the weekend. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will linger around APF through around 02Z, then VFR should prevail at all terminals through tonight. Winds turn generally light, then back to a SE flow around 10kt after 15Z. APF will again see a shift to westerly winds with Gulf breezes in the afternoon hours. VCTS again expected after 17Z for the Atl terminals, and after 18-19Z for APF. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail over the area through early in the upcoming week, although afternoon wind shifts to the W-SW will be possible over the near-shore Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2 ft or less over the next few days. Although the pattern will favor the highest thunderstorm chances over land, isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 92 81 93 / 10 30 10 30 West Kendall 77 93 78 94 / 20 30 10 30 Opa-Locka 80 94 80 94 / 10 30 10 30 Homestead 79 92 79 92 / 20 20 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 80 91 81 91 / 10 30 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 80 92 81 92 / 10 30 0 20 Pembroke Pines 81 95 81 96 / 10 30 10 30 West Palm Beach 79 92 79 93 / 20 30 0 20 Boca Raton 79 92 80 93 / 10 30 0 20 Naples 79 92 79 93 / 30 50 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for FLZ063-066>075- 168-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....CWC UPDATE/AVIATION...17