198
FXUS62 KMFL 040530
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
130 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Stout mid-level ridging (~594 dam) will continue to expand across
the southeastern United States through the short term as surface highs
build inland from the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. Easterly-
southeasterly winds will prevail during this period, with near-climo
moisture values in place on Wednesday (PWAT values between 1.7-1.9
inches). This regime will support the development of scattered showers
and thunderstorms over interior and southwestern FL during the late
afternoon hours as the sea breezes develop and meet inland.

Drier mid-level air could filter in over the area on Thursday along
Hurricane Beryl`s northern flank as the system approaches the Yucatan
peninsula. This dry air intrusion could help inhibit widespread convective
development across the region, with isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm coverage (PoPs ~50-60%) over the interior and southwest
FL during the afternoon and evening.

Temperatures each day will generally range from the upper 80s along
the immediate East Coast to the low 90s across interior and southwest
FL. The corresponding heat indices have climbed into the 105-110 degree
F range across southern-most portions of the peninsula this afternoon;
as a result, a Heat Advisory is in effect for Miami- Dade, Broward,
mainland Monroe and Collier counties through 8pm Thursday. Overnight
temperatures will remain warm, providing little relief from the heat,
with lows in the mid 70s over the interior and in the low 80s along
the immediate coastlines.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Ridging will hold over the area through Friday-Saturday, flattening
out over the weekend as a mid-level trough develops over the Great
Lakes region. This will support a light flow pattern with easterly
to southeasterly winds prevailing through the weekend before shifting
more southerly early next week.

Chances for shower and thunderstorm development each afternoon will
be driven by the sea breezes given that South Florida is under broad
high pressure. Convection is expected to first initiate over the local
waters and the East Coast metro areas late each morning, shifting towards
the interior and West Coast areas in the afternoon and early evening.
Models suggest a surge of moisture could approach the region over the
weekend, thus enhancing the chances for heavy rainfall and higher coverage
on Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures throughout the period will remain warm, with high temperatures
reaching the lower 90s across most areas each day. Heat index values
may range between 105 and 110 during the late morning and afternoon
hours. However, there is low confidence regarding persistence and thus
continuous monitoring will be needed to determine the potential issuance
of any heat-related products.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Generally VFR through the period. Light and variable winds become
easterly later this morning. There`s a very slight chance of
showers impacting East Coast sites in the early afternoon, but
confidence does not extend beyond mention of VCSH. Higher
confidence regarding impacts to KAPF later in the evening; short
fuse TEMPOs for MVFR/IFR conditions could be needed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Generally light easterly-southeasterly will prevail across local waters
through the end of the week as ridging prevails. Seas will remain in
the 1-3 ft range. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop
each afternoon, resulting in locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the east coast beaches
through Thursday as moderate easterly (onshore) flow prevails.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  79  93  79 /  30  10  40  20
West Kendall     92  78  93  77 /  30  10  40  20
Opa-Locka        93  80  94  79 /  20  10  40  20
Homestead        91  79  91  79 /  20  10  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  90  79  90  80 /  20  10  40  20
N Ft Lauderdale  91  79  92  80 /  20  10  40  20
Pembroke Pines   94  79  95  79 /  20  10  40  20
West Palm Beach  91  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  20
Boca Raton       92  78  93  79 /  20  10  40  20
Naples           93  80  92  80 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069>075-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV/Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...ATV