097
ACUS11 KWNS 032317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032316
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-040045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Areas affected...Southwest SD and northwest NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501...503...

Valid 032316Z - 040045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501, 503
continues.

SUMMARY...A long-lived supercell may continue to produce large hail
as it moves east-southeast in southwest South Dakota. Additional
higher-based storms may develop to its southwest in northwest
Nebraska, yielding a severe threat beyond the 01Z expiration of WW
501.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell has tracked across a part of the
Black Hills with several reported severe hail events, most recently
up to around 1.5 inches in diameter. Per UDX radar, this cell is
riding immediately behind the composite outflow/front moving
southeast in southwest SD. The trailing portion of this boundary
will impinge on a pocket of residual buoyancy that was not
overturned by the QLCS in north-central to southwest NE. Recent HRRR
guidance has been insistent on additional development through dusk,
which would likely yield potential for a supercell or two into
northwest NE after the 01Z scheduled expiration of WW 501. This
threat should be short-lived however, given the extensive nature of
the QLCS to the southeast and eventual inflow of overturned air as
it advects northwestward this evening.

..Grams.. 07/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43820293 43620136 43180112 42750114 42440198 42350272
            42350339 42700407 43070432 43820293