566
ACUS11 KWNS 012344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012343
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-020115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 012343Z - 020115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will gradually increase as the warm
front approaches and the low-level airmass destabilizes through the
evening. Severe wind and hail are the predominant threats, though a
tornado or two could also occur. A WW issuance will eventually be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms are progressing eastward across
NE, including a supercell that is traversing the warm frontal zone
with a history of brief tornadoes. The surface warm front is
expected to continue drifting northward with time as low-level
warm-air advection increases in tandem with the strengthening of the
low-level jet. Initially elevated buoyancy will advect over eastern
NE into western IA with large, curved hodographs. The stronger,
longer-lived updrafts that form should become multicellular and
perhaps supercellular, capable of severe wind and hail. The tornado
potential will be largely dependent on the degree of
surface-based/boundary-layer destabilization can materialize this
evening. A WW issuance will eventually be needed as storms across
central NE impinge on the eastern bounds of Tornado Watch 496.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   41649799 41939721 42029599 41889483 41509414 40929412
            40459464 40149553 40099625 40169697 40369766 41649799