032
ACUS11 KWNS 031802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031802
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-031930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Areas affected...Nebraska Panhandle into northwest/north-central
Nebraska...southern South Dakota...and far northeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 031802Z - 031930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of damaging winds, large hail, and
tornadoes likely to develop through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows an increase in cu development
across the southwestern Nebraska Panhandle over the last hour. The
environment across northeastern Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle
is characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s with dew
points in the mid 50s to low 60s. Mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE
around 1000-1500 J/kg extending from northeastern Colorado into the
Nebraska Panhandle along and east of a surface trough. Deep layer
shear around 35-40 kts increases near a boundary located across
northern Nebraska. CAM guidance has shown a signal for development
of multiple supercells across the southwestern Nebraska Panhandle
around 18-20z, with a few cells now on radar farther north near the
NE/SD border, tracking into the slightly better moisture to the
north and east. Initially, the main threats will likely be damaging
winds and large hail given sufficient shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates. As cells mature, potential for a tornado or two will be
possible. A watch will likely be needed to cover this potential this
afternoon.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41220092 41120146 40750252 40690336 40800367 41150370
            42590320 43220276 43360193 43540095 43409968 43349951
            42909937 42409948 41869955 41389984 41300017 41220092