Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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666 FXUS64 KMAF 100941 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 441 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge covering the southwest and central CONUS, extending from the eastern Pacific to the ArklaTex and into the Gulf of Mexico. The old inverted trough is now over Baja, bifurcating the ridge somewhat, but this should have negligible effect on weather here, as it will continue decaying and moving west. The ridge will remain in place today, portending a fairly persistent forecast. As yesterday`s front permeates the higher terrain, temperatures down south will cool a little, while temperatures in the north recover a little. This looks to be a wash, with temperatures everywhere within a degree or so where they were yesterday. Chances for rain look slim-to-none, but CAMs are suggesting convection over north central Texas may still send a boundary or two into the Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon, kicking off isolated activity there and in the eastern Permian Basin. Tonight, the LLJ redevelops and increases to 35+kts, retarding radiational cooling and keeping overnight lows unseasonably warm by 6-8 F above normal. Sunday, the ridge intensifies a bit, increasing thicknesses and yielding highs 2-3 F warmer than today`s. Despite the warm-up, Heat Advisory criteria will not be met. No chance of rain anywhere. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 The new week appears fairly bleak for most locations outside of the western higher terrain and immediately adjacent plains. The upper- high that has been centered overhead, dominating our weather pattern for an untold length of time continues. This keeps the overall forecast hot and mainly dry for the bulk of our region. In general, afternoon temperatures climb into the upper 90s to low 100s each day and fall into the 70s each morning. Plentiful sunshine and mainly dry conditions can be expected for the majority. There is one exception to this mundane forecast. Towards the middle of the week, the upper-high weakens and moves eastward into the Deep South. This allows moist southwesterly mid-level flow and weak disturbances to influence far western portions of our area. This should support at least isolated showers and thunderstorms for the westernmost portions of the area. These chances do appear to decrease again by the end of the week as the upper-high becomes centered near the Four Corners once again. I wish I had better news to share, but this remains a dream for some unknown time in the future. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 439 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in fairly light return flow. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field late morning, w/bases starting 4.5-5 kft AGL. No convection expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 97 76 101 75 / 20 10 0 0 Carlsbad 97 72 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 98 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 89 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 96 71 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 90 63 93 65 / 10 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 96 75 98 75 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 96 76 98 75 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 99 76 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...44