551
FXUS64 KMAF 010513
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

- Tropical-like downpours expected today, with medium to high
  shower/storm chances again Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Daily shower/storm chances with risk of flash flooding from
  heavy rain continue over Davis Mountains from mid week into
  early next week, while rain chances elsewhere begin to decrease
  after Wednesday-Thursday.

- Warmer temperatures rising back into the 90s and above, 80s in
  higher elevations by this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Our upper-air pattern remains relatively unchanged from the last
several days. A mid-level ridge rests near the east coast, while a
trough sits out west. Wedged between these two features, our area
will be in a rather moisture-rich, southeasterly flow at the
surface. Dewpoints shall average within the 60s through much of the
period. A weak cold front is currently dropping down into our
northern counties, triggering some scattered showers and storms as
it does so. Ultimately, it will stall over the northern portions of
our region later this evening through the overnight hours, serving
as the focal point for more storm development. Our best rain chances
(50-70%) lie over southeastern New Mexico and much of the Permian
Basin, as the front is expected to lie within close proximity of
these locations. However, areas elsewhere maintain >40% rain chances
this evening. The 12Z MAF sounding came in with a PWAT value of
1.40", while ensemble guidance shows PWAT values anywhere from 1-
1.65" areawide. This being the case, flooding will continue to be a
concern, especially in western portions of our area, where soil is
already saturated from previous rainfall. Therefore, a Flood Watch
remains in effect through late this evening for southeastern New
Mexico and the western/central Permian Basin south into the Big Bend
region. Otherwise, temperatures tonight settle into the 60s/70s.

Tuesday, ongoing morning showers, ample cloud coverage, and overall
increased moisture contribute to cooler temperatures. Highs are
forecast to top out in the mid 70s/80s. Best rain chances (50-70%)
shift toward the higher terrain, influenced by moist, upsloping
winds during the afternoon. The rest of our area will have at least
some shot at seeing rainfall, given PoPs of >30%. Rain chances look
to taper down a touch Tuesday evening. Again, flooding shall remain
a concern, primarily for our western areas. Tuesday night,
temperatures dip into the 60s and 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

The forecast for the middle and end of the week remains wet with
mainly below normal temperatures. Highs sit in the mid to upper 80s
for most as mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and storms
keep temperatures cooler. Medium (40-60%) rain chances hang on
through Thursday. FLooding will be the main concern with any showers
and storms, particularly across the higher terrain in areas that
have seen at least some measurable rainfall each day over the
last week or so. Further flood products will likely be needed
before rain chances begin to diminish by Friday and into this
weekend. By then, the highest rain chances will be confined to the
Davis Mountains and areas to the south towards Big Bend and
continue into the weekend. A more dominant ridge begins to develop
over New Mexico and temperatures begin to move near and above
normal across the eastern half of the CWA. Lows each night stay
near to above normal as the elevated moisture and clouds keeps the
air from more efficiently cooling at night.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

IFR CIGs building northwest with showers/storms from beginning of
TAF period into 12Z, then CIGs increasing to MVFR from 19Z-00Z
and remaining MVFR into end of period. VIS VFR except for MVFR or
lower in regions of SHRA or TSRA and/or BR or FG. Heavy rain,
gusty winds, lightning, and small hail are main threats in storms
for any terminals. Easterly winds shifting to southeast for
terminals over Lea County into Upper Trans Pecos, Stockton
Plateau, and Permian Basin from 14Z-21Z, and from 00Z-04Z Eddy
County Plains. Gusty winds outside of showers/storms developing
17Z-21Z today and continuing into 00Z before decreasing, with
gustiest winds at or above 20 knots expected over the Stockton
Plateau during that period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               84  70  84  70 /  50  50  50  40
Carlsbad                 75  65  77  67 /  90  80  80  60
Dryden                   81  70  83  72 /  60  50  50  40
Fort Stockton            78  67  81  69 /  70  60  70  50
Guadalupe Pass           69  61  72  63 /  80  60  70  60
Hobbs                    77  65  77  67 /  80  70  70  50
Marfa                    74  62  75  64 /  80  70  90  70
Midland Intl Airport     81  69  81  70 /  50  60  50  40
Odessa                   79  68  80  69 /  60  60  60  40
Wink                     78  67  80  69 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ early this morning for
     Andrews-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster
     County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
     Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...94