541
FXUS64 KMAF 112252
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
552 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Temperatures continue to warm well into the 90s across much of
the area this afternoon. Cu is developing over the Davis Mountains
and while an isolated shower or storm is possible, strong
subsidence will keep this threat limited. Low tempertures will be
very mild tonight as elevated winds continue to keep the
atmosphere mixed even after the sun sets. Lows will generally be
in the mid to upper 70s.

Mid level ridging remains in full control Monday and we see very
little change in store. Highs will once again reach into upper 90s
to near 100 with an isolated storm possible in the Davis
Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Upper air pattern evolution remains on track early to mid week,
as an upper high weakens in response to multiple mid-level
perturbations moving across the northern/central CONUS, and
meanders from the Southern Great Plains to the ArkLaTex and
Mississippi River Valley over the Deep South Tuesday into Friday.
Thereafter, the upper high is still forecast to again settle over
the Four Corners by the beginning of next weekend and for the
ridge axis to be situated from W TX extending into the Northern
Great Plains. PoPs have increased Wednesday and Thursday from
previous runs, as model guidance indicates a disturbance in the
low to mid levels moving across the western Gulf of Mexico into
the eastern Permian Basin and providing lift and moisture across
the area for increased rain chances, especially over the western
higher terrain. NBM highs Wednesday and Thursday have also trended
a few degrees lower, indicating increased confidence for
increased clouds and rain across parts of the area that will limit
solar heating and keep temperatures down. However, aside from the
Canadian GEPS ensemble showing up to half an inch accumulation
over the Davis Mountains and above a quarter inch accumulation
westernmost regions of TX into the SE NM plains, most ensembles
are showing only a few tenths of an inch accumulation at most from
this event, with NBM even lower at a few hundredths of an inch.
Little change from previous runs with lows, as we are still
expecting a LLJ each night to maintain mixing of the boundary
layer and inhibit radiational cooling near the surface. Highs 5 to
10 degrees above average in the triple digits along the Pecos
River, over the northeast Permian Basin, and near the Rio Grande
with 110+ along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend, are forecast each
day, with 90s, 80s in highest elevations elsewhere. Lows likewise
remain 5 to 10 degrees warmer than average for this time of year,
only dropping into the 70s and above, 60s northern Lea County and
Guadalupe Mountains down to Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos
each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR will prevail with gusty winds diminishing late this evening
and then increasing again by late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76 102  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 74 101  73 100 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   75  99  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            74 100  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           70  93  70  91 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                    71  99  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    65  93  64  92 /   0  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     75  99  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   75  99  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     76 101  76 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29