811
FXUS64 KMAF 040521
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Similar to yesterday, VIS SAT shows high clouds streaming in from
the southwest over the SE NM plains, with a few high clouds also
visible over W TX. These clouds are associated with upper level
moisture on the western edge of the ridge that has slid farther east
over the southern CONUS. Highs in the triple digits aside from 90s
in higher elevations are once again expected this afternoon. Due to
widespread highs 5 to 10 degrees above average for early July, Heat
Advisories are in effect into this evening for a large portion of
the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Rio Grande.
Radar shows storms over the Davis Mountains and showers moving
through Eddy and Lea County, and further growth of showers and
storms is expected into this evening. In addition to storms
initiating from heating of elevated terrain, increased moisture out
west where there is less capping will lead to highest chances of
showers and storms over southern Culberson County into the Davis
Mountains, with chances also extending northeast into SE NM plains
and westernmost Permian Basin. Loss of daytime heating will again
lead to dissipation overnight of storms that form in the afternoon.
A 30kt low-level jet maintains gusty winds and mixing over W TX
tonight, with lows 5 to 10 degrees above average and in the 70s and
above, aside from 60s for higher elevations and Marfa Plateau into
lower Trans Pecos. Thursday will be another warmer than average day
with 105+ readings possible along the Rio Grande, and over the
Western Low Rolling Plains as well as Pecos River valley in Reeves
County Plains and western Permian Basin. Highest shower and storms
chances will again be over southern Culberson County into Davis
Mountains extending northeast, but there will be a higher chance of
showers and storms farther east over the Stockton Plateau into all
but the eastern Permian Basin. Thursday night, low-level jet and dew
point temperatures mainly in the 50s and 60s keep lows warmer than
average and again only falling into the 70s and above aside from 60s
in the usual cooler spots.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Friday, the bisected upper ridge continues, with one half off the
west coast of NoCal, and the other over the Gulf coast states east
of Texas, leaving Texas in a col.  A cold front will move into the
area, w/the NAM putting fropa at KMAF ~ 16Z.  This will result in
highs Friday afternoon right around normal.  Long range models are
consistent in developing convection over the mountains of Chihuahua,
and bringing it across the border near the Presidio Valley Friday
afternoon, which should merge nicely with expected convective
development along the cold front.  Fortunately, best chances look to
be over Presidio County, which is currently our most drought-
stricken area of Texas.

Saturday, return flow resumes, with continuing chances of showers
and thunderstorms along the old frontal boundary, which . will be
pretty much a warm front by then.  W/expected cloud cover and
convection, temperatures should remain around normal.

Sunday looks to be a "down" day, with no frontal boundary to work
with.  Temperatures will make a valiant attempt to recover, yet end
the day a mere ~ 5 F or so above normal.  For those not fond of warm
weather, this looks to be the warmest day in the extended, and it`s
all downhill after that.

Sunday night, another front is forecast to approach the area.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Beryl is forecast to make landfall just south
of KBRO, and die out somewhere south of Laredo, according to the
latest guidance.  W/the front moving into the area Monday, pushing
easterly upslope flow, and Beryl to the southeast, models keep
relatively decent chances of rain in play through the extended. Much
will depend on how much of the tropical airmass makes it up the Rio
Grande/Pecos valleys.  All of this will also affect highs each day.
If the west coast ridge weakens or shifts west in the slightest,
this could send Beryl back up though central Texas.  Thus, Monday
through Wednesday is a crapshoot at this point, and Beryl that far
out.  For these reasons, we have no reason to deviate from NBM,
which puts highs each day at or just below normal.

The one downside to the next week remains QPF, as all models remain
stingy and pessimistic.  Perhaps this will increase if Beryl`s track
changes, but right now it looks paltry. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions continue through the period. VCTS near INK
continues to weaken and should end within the next hour or two.
Winds continue to remain largely southeasterly. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible late tomorrow afternoon and evening at
most terminals. Confidence in timing and location remains low
confidence and have not included in TAF forecast at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  91  72  95 /  30  40  30  30
Carlsbad                 74  93  72  95 /  30  50  30  30
Dryden                   76  99  75  97 /   0  10  20  20
Fort Stockton            75  96  74  96 /  20  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass           69  85  67  88 /  30  60  30  40
Hobbs                    71  89  68  93 /  40  40  40  20
Marfa                    65  91  64  90 /  50  60  40  50
Midland Intl Airport     75  91  72  93 /  30  40  30  30
Odessa                   75  91  73  94 /  30  40  30  20
Wink                     77  95  75  98 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...91