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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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601 FXUS64 KMAF 042117 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 417 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Happy Independence Day, Y`all! WV imagery shows a bifurcated upper ridge over the southern CONUS, with one half off the west coast of California, and the other over the Gulf coast states, placing the col over far west Texas this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon are on track to top out in the neighborhood of where they landed yesterday...upper 90s and low 100s most locations. For those who prefer cooler weather, a treat is in store as mesoanalysis shows a cold front moving through the Texas Panhandle. This feature will back surface winds this afternoon to easterly, resulting in upslope flow and convection developing from the Davis to the Guadalupe Mountains. CAMs are in pretty good agreement in developing additional convection along and ahead of the front, which will meet up w/orographic convection to the southeast late this afternoon or early evening. Forecast soundings depict dry subcloud layers, so damaging winds will be a possibility into the evening hours. Although a negligible LLJ is forecast overnight, ample cloud cover will retard radiational cooling, resulting in overnight minimums ~ 6-8 F above normal. even so, this will be a couple of degrees cooler than this mornings temperatures. Friday, the cold front moves into the CWA, w/the latest NAM putting fropa at KMAF ~ 18Z. Of course, convection to the north of the front overnight and Saturday may assist its southwestward progression somewhat. Convective chances will increase along and behind the front as it moves through. QPF still looks scant, but we`ll take what we can get. The front, convection, and cloud cover will keep a lid on highs, which should come in at or even a degree or two below normal. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Not much has changed from the last runs. Cooler temperatures and increased rain chances are still expected this weekend into next week. This will be in the wake of a surface cold front passing south through the area early Friday as upper ridging re-develops west while a large trough digs into the Plains. This upper air pattern results in NW flow aloft and moist easterly flow at the surface, which will be conducive to multiple rounds of storms Saturday, although widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Not all areas will see rain, with lowest chances over southeast portions of the area, and interquartile and 10th to 90th percentiles showing accumulations of at most a few tenths of an inch. Highs near to below normal with widespread 90s, 80s in higher elevations, and triple digits along the Rio Grande are forecast Saturday. With decreased cloud cover and rain chances Sunday, highs rise above normal, with triple digits along the Pecos River into the SE NM plains, basins of Culberson County, and northeast Permian Basin in addition to near the Rio Grande, with 90s elsewhere aside from 80s in the higher elevations of the Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos. Another cold front from the north is forecast Monday as the upper trough remains over the Plains, and associated increased clouds are expected to lower highs back below normal, with triple digits near the Rio Grande, mainly 90s, 80s in higher elevations and northern Lea County and Permian Basin Monday, and a mix of 90s and 80s, triple digits along the Rio Grande Tuesday through next Thursday. Lows also undergo a decreasing trend Saturday night onward as temperatures are able to decrease to lower levels than the past week given they will be decreasing from a starting lower high temperature. While lows may still only fall into the 70s aside from 60s in higher elevations, northern Permian Basin and Lea County, and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos, lows in the lower 70s rather than the mid to upper 70s as occurred this past week are more likely. Hurricane Beryl is forecast to make landfall in N MX or S TX late Sunday or early Monday. Recent NHC hurricane track and ensembles depict remnants of the storm tracking NW into the area from the western Gulf of Mexico, but this far out it`s too early to know what the inland track of the storm will be and whether we will get any rain from the remnants. Regardless, deep easterly flow will keep periodic shower and storm chances present over most of the area next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 416 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours. A cold front will approach the area overnight, backing surface winds at northern terminals, and arrive Friday. Some models try to bring MVFR cigs into KHOB w/the front, but there`s too much uncertainty to commit to that attm. Surface winds will increase ahead of and behind the front Friday. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field late Friday morning, w/bases 4.5 kft AGL or so. Convection will be possible all terminals, especially KPEQ, KINK, and KHOB. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 76 91 71 94 / 20 40 30 30 Carlsbad 74 92 71 94 / 30 40 40 30 Dryden 76 98 76 98 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 75 97 73 96 / 20 30 30 20 Guadalupe Pass 69 86 66 88 / 40 40 40 40 Hobbs 70 88 67 92 / 50 40 40 20 Marfa 65 92 64 91 / 50 50 40 40 Midland Intl Airport 75 91 71 93 / 40 30 30 20 Odessa 75 92 71 94 / 40 30 30 20 Wink 77 95 73 98 / 50 30 30 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...44