601
FXUS64 KMAF 042117
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
417 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Happy Independence Day, Y`all!

WV imagery shows a bifurcated upper ridge over the southern
CONUS, with one half off the west coast of California, and the
other over the Gulf coast states, placing the col over far west
Texas this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon are on track to
top out in the neighborhood of where they landed yesterday...upper
90s and low 100s most locations.

For those who prefer cooler weather, a treat is in store as
mesoanalysis shows a cold front moving through the Texas
Panhandle. This feature will back surface winds this afternoon to
easterly, resulting in upslope flow and convection developing from
the Davis to the Guadalupe Mountains. CAMs are in pretty good
agreement in developing additional convection along and ahead of
the front, which will meet up w/orographic convection to the
southeast late this afternoon or early evening. Forecast soundings
depict dry subcloud layers, so damaging winds will be a
possibility into the evening hours. Although a negligible LLJ is
forecast overnight, ample cloud cover will retard radiational
cooling, resulting in overnight minimums ~ 6-8 F above normal.
even so, this will be a couple of degrees cooler than this
mornings temperatures.

Friday, the cold front moves into the CWA, w/the latest NAM
putting fropa at KMAF ~ 18Z. Of course, convection to the north of
the front overnight and Saturday may assist its southwestward
progression somewhat. Convective chances will increase along and
behind the front as it moves through. QPF still looks scant, but
we`ll take what we can get. The front, convection, and cloud cover
will keep a lid on highs, which should come in at or even a
degree or two below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Not much has changed from the last runs. Cooler temperatures and
increased rain chances are still expected this weekend into next
week. This will be in the wake of a surface cold front passing
south through the area early Friday as upper ridging re-develops
west while a large trough digs into the Plains. This upper air
pattern results in NW flow aloft and moist easterly flow at the
surface, which will be conducive to multiple rounds of storms
Saturday, although widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
Not all areas will see rain, with lowest chances over southeast
portions of the area, and interquartile and 10th to 90th
percentiles showing accumulations of at most a few tenths of an
inch. Highs near to below normal with widespread 90s, 80s in
higher elevations, and triple digits along the Rio Grande are
forecast Saturday. With decreased cloud cover and rain chances
Sunday, highs rise above normal, with triple digits along the
Pecos River into the SE NM plains, basins of Culberson County, and
northeast Permian Basin in addition to near the Rio Grande, with
90s elsewhere aside from 80s in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos. Another cold
front from the north is forecast Monday as the upper trough
remains over the Plains, and associated increased clouds are
expected to lower highs back below normal, with triple digits near
the Rio Grande, mainly 90s, 80s in higher elevations and northern
Lea County and Permian Basin Monday, and a mix of 90s and 80s,
triple digits along the Rio Grande Tuesday through next Thursday.
Lows also undergo a decreasing trend Saturday night onward as
temperatures are able to decrease to lower levels than the past
week given they will be decreasing from a starting lower high
temperature. While lows may still only fall into the 70s aside
from 60s in higher elevations, northern Permian Basin and Lea
County, and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos, lows in the
lower 70s rather than the mid to upper 70s as occurred this past
week are more likely.

Hurricane Beryl is forecast to make landfall in N MX or S TX late
Sunday or early Monday. Recent NHC hurricane track and ensembles
depict remnants of the storm tracking NW into the area from the
western Gulf of Mexico, but this far out it`s too early to know
what the inland track of the storm will be and whether we will get
any rain from the remnants. Regardless, deep easterly flow will
keep periodic shower and storm chances present over most of the
area next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours. A cold front will
approach the area overnight, backing surface winds at northern
terminals, and arrive Friday. Some models try to bring MVFR cigs
into KHOB w/the front, but there`s too much uncertainty to commit
to that attm. Surface winds will increase ahead of and behind the
front Friday. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field
late Friday morning, w/bases 4.5 kft AGL or so. Convection will
be possible all terminals, especially KPEQ, KINK, and KHOB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76  91  71  94 /  20  40  30  30
Carlsbad                 74  92  71  94 /  30  40  40  30
Dryden                   76  98  76  98 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            75  97  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
Guadalupe Pass           69  86  66  88 /  40  40  40  40
Hobbs                    70  88  67  92 /  50  40  40  20
Marfa                    65  92  64  91 /  50  50  40  40
Midland Intl Airport     75  91  71  93 /  40  30  30  20
Odessa                   75  92  71  94 /  40  30  30  20
Wink                     77  95  73  98 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...44