013
FXUS64 KLZK 041901
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
201 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

To begin the period, hot and humid conditions will continue ahead of
a cold front that is expected to move into the state later this
evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
portions of the state this afternoon and evening. The best chance
for strong to severe thunderstorms will be across northern Arkansas.
Currently, storms are beginning to fire off across parts of
northeastern and central Arkansas...this trend will continue
through this evening and tonight. PoPs are expected to become
more widespread later this evening as the cold front moves into
the state.

Drier and somewhat "cooler" conditions are expected Saturday as the
cold front moves south of the state. While temperatures are still
expected to be hot...humidity values will be lowered through at
least the weekend.

As mentioned above, the warmest day of the period will be this
afternoon as high temperatures rise into the mid to upper 90s with
heat index values getting into the heat advisory/excessive heat
warning criteria. By Friday and Saturday afternoons, high
temperatures will likely drop into the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 60s
to lower 70s by Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Large scale troughing will overtake most areas east of the Rockies
in the long term portion of the forecast, with ridging remaining
along the Gulf Coast and the western states. This will keep us out
of the excessive heat business, and there will be better chances of
rain. With sfc ridging to the northeast, rain chances will be in the
forecast on Sunday across all but northeastern parts of the state.
Sunday also appears to be the hottest day during the period.

Heading into early next week, another cold front will arrive from
the Plains on Monday. The front will likely come to a halt and may
wash out somewhere over the central or southern counties. At the
same time, the remnants of Beryl will be well to our south, and
moisture surrounding the system may come into play locally. Have
hit/miss thunderstorms mentioned Monday through Wednesday,
especially during the afternoon/early evening. In addition to some
much needed rain, temperatures will remain close to normal/not so
hot.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR condition are expected through much of the period. With that
said, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening across northern terminals. There is some
uncertainty on how far south these showers and storms will get,
therefore, PROB30 groups were written for most central and
southern terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  90  67  91 /  60  20   0   0
Camden AR         75  92  70  91 /  20  60  20  10
Harrison AR       69  86  63  89 /  70  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    74  91  71  91 /  50  50  10  10
Little Rock   AR  77  92  73  92 /  50  50  10   0
Monticello AR     77  92  72  91 /  20  60  20  10
Mount Ida AR      71  89  67  90 /  50  50  10  10
Mountain Home AR  71  87  64  89 /  70  10   0   0
Newport AR        75  90  68  89 /  60  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     76  90  71  90 /  30  50  10  10
Russellville AR   74  91  68  91 /  60  20   0   0
Searcy AR         74  91  68  91 /  50  30   0   0
Stuttgart AR      77  90  71  89 /  40  50  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
113-121>123-130-138-212-213-230-238.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ103-112-137-140-
141-203-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...73