201
FXUS64 KLUB 120758
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
258 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Current RAP analysis shows the upper ridge spinning over Texas this
morning with some lingering midlevel moisture present in satellite
imagery along the northern periphery of the ridge axis. Weak shower
activity across the far southern portions of the Texas Panhandle has
dissipated this morning with a lack of forcing as the ridge builds
northward. There is a small potential for early morning shower
activity (similar to yesterday) across portions of the far southeast
Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains with southerly surface winds and
moist upslope flow. A surge of low level moisture early this morning
will give way to maintenance of dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s.
However, soundings indicate a potential layer of dry air at 850mb
which may limit any precipitation from reaching the surface.

With the upper ridge pushing northward, midlevel drying is expected
through the day today. Thus, expect weak subsidence and hot
temperatures across the forecast area. Areas west of the I-27
corridor will remain in the upper 90s with the upper ridge centered
more over North Texas. However, this setup alludes to continued
triple digit heat east of the I-27 corridor with temperatures around
100 to 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory has not been issued as most
areas will remain near or below 105 degrees and only a few spotty
areas may breach the 105 degree mark. All in all, it will be another
hot and dry one out there. Afternoon thunderstorms will develop
along the higher terrain of New Mexico, but with the placement of
the ridge, weak west southwesterly flow will drive the monsoonal
moisture mostly to our north. There is a very small chance for the
far southwestern Texas Panhandle to be clipped, but the potential
remains too low for any mentionable PoPs at this time.

Now onto a few fun climate facts. Yesterday morning Childress beat
the old record warmest low temperature for August 11th. The observed
low was a warm 80 degrees, which breaks the previous record of 78
degrees (set back in 1964). This morning proves another chance for
Childress to tie or break the warmest low of 79 degrees (set back in
1936), with a current forecast low of 79 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

A semi-active, progressive wave pattern is forecast to develop by
the early-middle part of the week as a mid/upper-level ridge
amplifies over the northern waters of the Pacific Ocean. Farther
south, two well-defined centers of the subtropical ridge that will
remain enveloped over the southern half of the U.S. will evolve: one
offshore of Baja California and the other over the northern Gulf of
Mexico that branches west-northwest into central North Texas. The
superposition of these large-scale features are expected to keep the
CWA within the barotropic airmass as the wavy, mid- and high-level
pattern propagates eastward over the central Great Plains throughout
the week. On Tuesday, a shortwave trough will dig southeastward over
the Pacific Northwest while the center of the mid-level ridge across
central North Texas shifts eastward in response to the geopotential
height falls over the Intermountain West. Lee cyclogenesis will
commence on Tuesday across eastern Colorado as the flow aloft
attains a low-amplitude, meridional component to it; and breezy,
southerly winds will evolve area-wide as surface troughing sharpens
to the south of the cyclone. High temperatures were increased
slightly across the Caprock Escarpment (i.e., 00Z statistical
guidance), with highs near the century mark across most of the CWA
on Tuesday. Despite a deeply-mixed boundary-layer soaring into the
mid-levels, the magnitude of subsidence and dry air aloft along the
western periphery of the departing ridge will suppress any chance
for convective development on Tuesday afternoon.

Thunderstorm chances are slated to improve by mid-week across the
Caprock Escarpment as a positively-tilted, high-level, shortwave
trough ejects into the north-central Great Plains. The flow down
into the mid-levels will be more-dampened in amplitude; however,
several series of smaller scale perturbations should translate
through the synoptic-scale, cross-barrier flow over the Rocky
Mountains. The greatest isallohypsic tendencies and large-scale
forcing for ascent will be displaced to the north of the CWA, with
geopotential heights remaining near-neutral to slightly negative on
Wednesday. This will lessen the magnitude of meso-alpha-scale
convergence in the low-levels, especially with southward extent
across the CWA (e.g., better convergence in the vicinity of the
extreme southern TX PH to facilitate and maintain ongoing or new
storms). A hot and very-well-mixed boundary-layer will once again
develop with temperatures near or in excess of 100 degrees, and PoPs
generated by the NBM were increased into the chance category (i.e.,
30 percent) across the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and
northwestern South Plains as at least widely-scattered convection
develops west of the New Mexico state line and moves eastward by
late-afternoon under the glancing influence of the shortwave trough
to the north. Blended PoPs were maintained otherwise across the rest
of the Caprock on Wednesday as confidence in the spatiotemporal
coverage of storms remains low. The orientation of the deep-layer
flow suggests the potential for the development of multi-cellular
lines.

The shortwave trough should continue to amplify and begin to attain
a neutral-tilt on Thursday as the mid-level ridge over the Desert
Southwest amplifies, and as the nose of the strengthening 250 mb jet
streak emerges over the northern Rocky Mountains. PoPs remain low
for Thursday, but expand into the Rolling Plains as the recycled
fetch of monsoonal moisture is deflected east-northeastward towards
the CWA owing to the well-defined, progressive wave pattern
encompassing the central and northern parts of the Lower 48. Else,
hotter and drier conditions are forecast through the end of the
period as the subtropical ridge begins to amplify and shift eastward
towards the southern Great Plains as an Omega Block begins to
develop across North America by next week. Triple-digit temperatures
are currently forecast area-wide for next weekend as a result of the
reamplification of the subtropical ridging.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period at all
three TAF sites. South southwest winds of 5 to 15 knots are
expected. Light showers may develop just south of CDS early this
morning, but are not expected to impact the TAF site at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...11