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Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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201 FXUS64 KLUB 120758 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 258 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Current RAP analysis shows the upper ridge spinning over Texas this morning with some lingering midlevel moisture present in satellite imagery along the northern periphery of the ridge axis. Weak shower activity across the far southern portions of the Texas Panhandle has dissipated this morning with a lack of forcing as the ridge builds northward. There is a small potential for early morning shower activity (similar to yesterday) across portions of the far southeast Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains with southerly surface winds and moist upslope flow. A surge of low level moisture early this morning will give way to maintenance of dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. However, soundings indicate a potential layer of dry air at 850mb which may limit any precipitation from reaching the surface. With the upper ridge pushing northward, midlevel drying is expected through the day today. Thus, expect weak subsidence and hot temperatures across the forecast area. Areas west of the I-27 corridor will remain in the upper 90s with the upper ridge centered more over North Texas. However, this setup alludes to continued triple digit heat east of the I-27 corridor with temperatures around 100 to 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory has not been issued as most areas will remain near or below 105 degrees and only a few spotty areas may breach the 105 degree mark. All in all, it will be another hot and dry one out there. Afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the higher terrain of New Mexico, but with the placement of the ridge, weak west southwesterly flow will drive the monsoonal moisture mostly to our north. There is a very small chance for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to be clipped, but the potential remains too low for any mentionable PoPs at this time. Now onto a few fun climate facts. Yesterday morning Childress beat the old record warmest low temperature for August 11th. The observed low was a warm 80 degrees, which breaks the previous record of 78 degrees (set back in 1964). This morning proves another chance for Childress to tie or break the warmest low of 79 degrees (set back in 1936), with a current forecast low of 79 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 A semi-active, progressive wave pattern is forecast to develop by the early-middle part of the week as a mid/upper-level ridge amplifies over the northern waters of the Pacific Ocean. Farther south, two well-defined centers of the subtropical ridge that will remain enveloped over the southern half of the U.S. will evolve: one offshore of Baja California and the other over the northern Gulf of Mexico that branches west-northwest into central North Texas. The superposition of these large-scale features are expected to keep the CWA within the barotropic airmass as the wavy, mid- and high-level pattern propagates eastward over the central Great Plains throughout the week. On Tuesday, a shortwave trough will dig southeastward over the Pacific Northwest while the center of the mid-level ridge across central North Texas shifts eastward in response to the geopotential height falls over the Intermountain West. Lee cyclogenesis will commence on Tuesday across eastern Colorado as the flow aloft attains a low-amplitude, meridional component to it; and breezy, southerly winds will evolve area-wide as surface troughing sharpens to the south of the cyclone. High temperatures were increased slightly across the Caprock Escarpment (i.e., 00Z statistical guidance), with highs near the century mark across most of the CWA on Tuesday. Despite a deeply-mixed boundary-layer soaring into the mid-levels, the magnitude of subsidence and dry air aloft along the western periphery of the departing ridge will suppress any chance for convective development on Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorm chances are slated to improve by mid-week across the Caprock Escarpment as a positively-tilted, high-level, shortwave trough ejects into the north-central Great Plains. The flow down into the mid-levels will be more-dampened in amplitude; however, several series of smaller scale perturbations should translate through the synoptic-scale, cross-barrier flow over the Rocky Mountains. The greatest isallohypsic tendencies and large-scale forcing for ascent will be displaced to the north of the CWA, with geopotential heights remaining near-neutral to slightly negative on Wednesday. This will lessen the magnitude of meso-alpha-scale convergence in the low-levels, especially with southward extent across the CWA (e.g., better convergence in the vicinity of the extreme southern TX PH to facilitate and maintain ongoing or new storms). A hot and very-well-mixed boundary-layer will once again develop with temperatures near or in excess of 100 degrees, and PoPs generated by the NBM were increased into the chance category (i.e., 30 percent) across the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains as at least widely-scattered convection develops west of the New Mexico state line and moves eastward by late-afternoon under the glancing influence of the shortwave trough to the north. Blended PoPs were maintained otherwise across the rest of the Caprock on Wednesday as confidence in the spatiotemporal coverage of storms remains low. The orientation of the deep-layer flow suggests the potential for the development of multi-cellular lines. The shortwave trough should continue to amplify and begin to attain a neutral-tilt on Thursday as the mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest amplifies, and as the nose of the strengthening 250 mb jet streak emerges over the northern Rocky Mountains. PoPs remain low for Thursday, but expand into the Rolling Plains as the recycled fetch of monsoonal moisture is deflected east-northeastward towards the CWA owing to the well-defined, progressive wave pattern encompassing the central and northern parts of the Lower 48. Else, hotter and drier conditions are forecast through the end of the period as the subtropical ridge begins to amplify and shift eastward towards the southern Great Plains as an Omega Block begins to develop across North America by next week. Triple-digit temperatures are currently forecast area-wide for next weekend as a result of the reamplification of the subtropical ridging. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period at all three TAF sites. South southwest winds of 5 to 15 knots are expected. Light showers may develop just south of CDS early this morning, but are not expected to impact the TAF site at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...11