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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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616 FXUS64 KLUB 141922 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The current forecast is still on track for the rest of this afternoon. A cumulus field has developed in vicinity of the surface pressure trough where better low level convergence was located. Increased moisture and a short wave trough was seen approaching the area per water vapor imagery this afternoon. Isolated to scattered convective initiation is expected to be around 4-5pm with activity drifting eastward through the late afternoon into the early evening. Very high cloud bases will allow convection to produce strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. It is looking increasingly likely for scattered storms to develop on Thursday afternoon across the FA. A very weak trough axis around 700- 500mb was noted in model guidance approaching the area on Thursday afternoon. Little to no hints of this trough were present in the upper levels of the atmosphere as indicated by increasing heights around 250mb. This trough axis will cut across the region from southwest to northeast above an increasing low level convergent field. A cold front will be approaching from the north during the daytime stalling out somewhere around the central to southern Texas Panhandle. A surface pressure trough will extend southward near the Texas/New Mexico state line with a weak signal for a pre-frontal surface trough cutting across the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Very strong heating will occur across the area with temperatures near or above 100 degrees everywhere off the caprock and on many locations on the caprock. The atmosphere will be characterized by a typical pulse, summer type convective activity. Boundary layer mixing will reach up to around 650mb or so leading to inverted-V soundings and a dry sub-cloud layer. Deep layer mixed instability values will be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg under an uncapped atmosphere. High cloud bases are expected and with weak flow, will promote pulse type convection with strong winds and locally heavy rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Hot dry weather is expected Friday though next week. The very warm upper high will remain centered over Colorado, New Mexico and northwest Texas. As such, there will be virtually no chance of rain. The highest afternoon temperatures are expected over the southeast Panhandle and the Rolling Plains where afternoon highs in excess of 105 degrees will be likely starting this Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Confidence is increasing in isolated to scattered storms late this afternoon into the early evening in the vicinity of KLBB and KPVW. Strong and variable surface winds are expected near any thunderstorm activity. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...01