![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
269 FXUS64 KLUB 160524 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1224 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Thunderstorm chances in the near term and heat tomorrow are the foci for the forecast this afternoon. Surface features early this afternoon include a weak cold front draped across the northern Texas Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma while a surface trough or remnant outflow boundary extends from the northeastern Texas Panhandle through the northwestern South Plains. Either or both of these features may serve as a focus for convective initiation late this afternoon as the air mass is progged to be weakly capped, although some subsidence is evident in the progged soundings but also in water vapor imagery as monsoonal moisture appears to be thinning and shifting to the south and southeast. CAMs continue to show the greatest concentration of storms across the southeastern half of the Panhandle where both boundaries could come into play while an extension to the southwest with more isolated convection is plausible. The previous forecast handled this well and no changes to weather/precip grids were made. Upper level ridging to the west expand eastward on Friday with a small increase in progged heights and thicknesses pointing to high temperatures about two degrees warmer on average than today in line with MOS and NBM. This will likely lead to the need for a Heat Advisory for at least the northeastern part of the forecast area with the hottest temperatures expected along and near the Prairie Dog Town Fork with areas southward through the Rolling Plains not as certain. Will let the overnight shift fine tune the forecast and settle on the configuration of the product. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 There is not much to say in regards to the long term forecast other than it is going to be abnormally hot for August. An omega blocking pattern will set up over the CONUS with the upper ridge centered over the Southern Plains. The center of the ridge will meander over the Southern Plains for at least the next week. This will bring hot temperatures for the next week and into possibly heat warning criteria for the Rolling Plains. Current probabilities from the NBM show around a ten percent chance of meeting or exceeding 110F off the caprock for Tuesday and Wednesday. Looking beyond next week, ensemble guidance does begin to diverge with regards to the strength of the ridge but generally keep the ridge centered over the four corners into the Southern Plains through the end of August. Therefore, chances do not bode well for any type of significant cool down in the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR will continue through this TAF period with light southeast winds overnight increasing slightly and becoming more southerly after daybreak. Very slim chances exist for a few isolated TS near PVW and CDS after 00z this evening, but will address this potential more thoroughly in later TAF cycles. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...30