793
FXUS64 KLUB 180701
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
201 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A generally weakly forced atmosphere today will lead to a low
confidence forecast for convective development this afternoon. An
upper level ridge will continue to meander around the southwestern
US bringing north to northwesterly flow aloft overhead. Any
potential short waves that will influence the region today are not
easily identifiable on water vapor imagery or in any model guidance.
Convection forming locally would be due to diurnal heating but
temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler today. Deep
mixing will occur today despite the cooler temperatures leading to
the erosion of the cap by mid-afternoon. Mixed layer instability
values up to 1000 J/kg would be sufficient for convective initiation
but with a lack of lift chances will be low. Better chances for
convection will again be during the late evening through overnight
hours. A favorable low level upslope flow regime will continue to
favor initial convective development off of the higher terrain of
New Mexico into the Raton Mesa. This activity will drift to the
south-southeast through the evening potentially reaching the extreme
southwestern Texas Panhandle late this evening. However, expected
cooler temperatures today will bring less instability when the
storms will be arriving. This will likely lead to these storms not
making much head way into West Texas once they cross the state line.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Not much change is expected in the upper pattern tomorrow into mid
next week. The upper high will remain over the southwestern CONUS
placing the FA under north to northwesterly upper flow. This will
allow for continued daily thunderstorm chances resulting from
terrain induced convection. One factor aiding in precip mainly this
weekend is the prospects of another FROPA late Saturday into early
Sunday. A shortwave trough embedded in the upper low extending from
Hudson Bay will push a cold front southward by early Sunday. The
combination of plentiful moisture, surface lift, and upper level
lift should allow for fairly widespread thunderstorm development
Saturday night into late Sunday. Models are also beginning to show a
secondary FROPA by late Monday as the upper shortwave amplifies.
This will once again increase storm chances into Tuesday. These
fronts will also aide in helping keep afternoon highs on the cool
side with some areas possibly seeing highs on Monday struggling to
push 80. The upper high is progged to begin slowly pushing east once
again by mid next week and will help to significantly lower precip
chances as well as increase highs back into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR is expected through the TAF period. Thunderstorm activity both
early this morning and this afternoon is expected to remain west
of all TAF sites.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...01