347
FXUS64 KLUB 040548
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Although shortwave troughing is still expected over much of the area
through this evening, mostly cloudy skies and showers persisting
from this morning over the far southwestern Panhandle and northern
South Plains are keeping the environment more stable/cooler in that
area, which is where the storm development was expected to occur
this afternoon/evening. As such, convective initiation looks to be
limited and thunderstorm PoPs have been slightly curtailed from the
previous forecast. Anything that does develop to the west will
struggle to make it very far east before sunset. Highs today may
only reach the mid 80s to the northwest, however the anticipated
triple-digits will occur elsewhere, with a Heat Advisory continuing
until 8 PM for portions of the southern Rolling Plains.

After another mild night tonight, a cold front will move through for
the 4th of July during the afternoon/evening. While the timing is
still somewhat uncertain, confidence is slightly increasing with
regards to more storm chances along the front in the Lubbock area
between 6-9pm which may hinder any evening plans. Although storms
are not expected to be severe, a few storms could become strong,
producing gusty winds and brief heavy downpours. One more day of
near triple-digit temperatures are expected before the front will
bring a reprieve into this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

We expect scattered shower and t-storm activity to be slowly
sagging southward through the forecast area Thursday evening
following the front`s motion. This activity should start to wane
after dark. However, additional storms are forecast to develop
early Friday morning across northeast NM into the western TX
Panhandle as a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest.
This leads us into into some uncertainty with Friday`s forecast.
High temperatures, extent of cloud cover and whether or not the
upper wave will be strong enough to produce scattered to
widespread showers & t-storms despite the relatively cool surface
temperatures are all still a bit uncertain. It could turn out to
be cool and mostly cloudy with less (although still some) shower
activity through the day, then rain chances could pick up again
Friday night as we see some isentropic upglide north of the old
front coincide with lift from the next shortwave. We are fairly
confident that highs on Friday will be much cooler than previous
days, looking to be mainly in the 80s. Saturday could see some
lingering shower activity in the morning as well, resulting in
more cloud cover, although we still expect some moderation in
temperatures - back up to highs in the lower 90s for most.

We should heat up nicely on Sunday as southerly flow returns under
transient shortwave ridging. but guidance shows the next shortwave
trough, accompanied by another cold front, arriving sometime from
Sunday evening to Monday morning. This will bump rain chances
back up and also lead to cooler temperatures on Monday, with
highs dropping back down into the 80s.

Looking farther out, the sprawling upper-high across the Western
CONUS may slowly start expanding eastward, potentially jutting
out in the southern High Plains by the middle of next week,
bringing warmer temperatures and lowering rain chances as the
northwest flow aloft gradually becomes replaced by northerly or
even northeasterly flow. However, not all guidance is on board
with this quite yet, and some solutions maintain a cooler and
unsettled NW-N flow pattern through most of the week with the
upper ridge remaining parked to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the majority of this
TAF period. Winds will slowly veer to the southwest this morning
ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will lead to
thunderstorm development this afternoon as well as switch winds
around to the north and then eventually east. Starting around 20z
convective development is possible at all three TAF sites. These
thunderstorms will slowly slide south and east through the evening
so all TAF sites should become dry by late tonight. Thunderstorms
will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty and
erratic winds, as well as brief drops in visibility due to heavy
rain.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...58