105
FXUS64 KLUB 030911
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
411 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Upper-level troughing is moving into the central CONUS this
morning which is increasing lift across the forecast area. This is
leading to persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms from
near Denver City to Childress and points west where a monsoonal
moisture plume is located. This activity is expected to last
through at least sunrise and may actually continue through the
rest of the day especially across the far southwestern Texas
Panhandle which is where the moisture plume will retreat to
by this afternoon. With the showers and cloud cover, temperatures
will be coolest across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle with
high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Farther south and
east though sunny skies will boost temperatures back into the
upper 90s to near 105 degrees. The hottest temperatures are
expected across the southern Rolling Plains where high
temperatures near 105 degrees are expected so a Heat Advisory has
been issued for Kent, King, and Stonewall counties from 1 pm until
8 pm today. The moisture plume will slide south and east late
this afternoon and early evening which will allow showers and
thunderstorms to expand southeastward as well generally remaining
along and west of a line from Tahoka to Childress. Similar to
yesterday the main concerns with this activity will be brief heavy
rainfall as well as gusty winds up to 60 mph. One shortwave will
be moving east of our area around sunset so with the loss of
daytime heating and decreasing upper-level support, shower and
thunderstorm activity should come to an end by midnight. Locations
where rain falls will cool back into the 60s and lower 70s while
the rest of the area will remain in the mid and upper 70s. /WI


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The Fourth of July will be our last well above normal day in regards
to temperatures this week thanks to an approaching cold front.
Unfortunately, this front won`t arrive into our area until the
late afternoon so temperatures will be able to warm into the upper
90s to lower 100s once again. The combination of heat and
humidity may allow heat index values to approach 105 degrees
across our eastern column of counties (Childress to Stonewall), so
another Heat Advisory may be required. Ahead of the front,
surface troughing will develop across the southern South Plains
through the far southeastern Texas Panhandle. Both along the front
and the surface trough, surface CAPE of around 1500 J/kg will
develop and with peak heating any capping will be eroded within
these two zones. Shear will be fairly weak so multi-cell clusters
will be the main storm type with damaging wind gusts as the
primary threat. The storms that form within the surface trough
will be nearly stationary only drifting to the east which means
that locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. As the front
sweeps south through the evening this will help to increase storm
speeds and lead to drying conditions behind it. So for those with
outdoor evening Independence Day festivities, be prepared to seek
shelter if a thunderstorm approaches your area.

The cold front will be south of our area by early Friday morning
which means a much cooler day is in store with high temperatures in
the 80s! The right entrance region of an upper-level jet will be
located over the forecast area so additional showers are possible
through the day although with limited instability this activity
should be localized. Another shortwave is expected to approach the
region late Friday/early Saturday which may spark additional showers
and maybe a few thunderstorms primarily across the far southern
Texas Panhandle. An upper-level ridge will expand across the western
CONUS this weekend with broad troughing remaining in place across
the central CONUS. This will leave our forecast area within
northwest flow aloft and hence give us several additional chances
for showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week as
several shortwaves rotate overhead. This will also help to keep
temperatures from warming too much through the end of the extended
period with high temperatures mostly remaining in the upper 80s
to mid 90s. /WI


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue at the start of this
TAF period along a line from E57 to CDS impacting all TAF sites.
This activity will slowly lift northeast and dissipate through the
morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through
this TAF period. Winds will generally remain below 15 kts today
initially out of the west with the shower activity, then out of
the south and eventually southeast by this afternoon. An
additional round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
late this afternoon and evening mainly west of LBB and PVW. Check
density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ038-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...58