355
FXUS65 KLKN 292125
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
225 PM PDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An upper-level trough and cold front will bring a
mixture of impacts to the state Sunday including showers and
thunderstorms across the northern border along with critical fire
weather conditions including gusty winds and low humidity across
east-central Nevada. Winds switch out of the northwest Monday
with cooler temperatures lingering across the area through
Tuesday. High pressure begins to build Tuesday with increasing
temperatures and very dry conditions continuing into the latter
part of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night

An approaching trough from the northwest has increased wind from
southwest across the area today. A cold front will begin to move
through northwest Nevada tonight ushering in cooler temperatures
for Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms with little
rainfall (5% or less chance of wetting rains) are expected Sunday
afternoon across far northern Nevada. Farther south, increased
winds and a very dry air mass will bring critical fire weather
conditions to White Pine county Sunday afternoon including gusts
to 30-35 mph and single digit daytime RH values after poor
overnight recoveries tonight. The cold front will sweep across
northwestern Nevada tonight into Sunday, reaching White Pine
county late Sunday. Temperatures across the area will only a few
degrees cooler along the US-50 corridor but a more noticeable
change will be found across northern Nevada where highs will
upper 80s to near 90 as opposed to mid 90s today. Lows tonight in
the mid 50s and lower 60s will fall further Sunday night into the
lower 50s in some locations in northeast Nevada

Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate Sunday evening and Sunday
night across northeastern Elko county with a prolonged period of
dry conditions settling in Monday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday

Quiet and dry weather conditions expected to last throughout the
week. Northwesterly flow from an associated low pressure system
will continue to bring cooler air over the silver state Monday and
Tuesday, expected to bring high temperatures into the 70s and 80s
(90s for N. Nye County) and lows in the 40s to 50s. The cooling
breeze however is expected to end by Wednesday as ensemble models
show a high pressure system moving in from the Pacific and over
southwestern U.S., bringing in warmer air and remain dry.
Temperatures from Wednesday towards the next weekend are expected
to gradually get warmer into the 90s, with Saturday highs in the
90s to 100s. Low temperatures also expected to warm but stay in
the 50s to 60s each night.

Northwesterly breezy winds Monday afternoon at 10-15, gusts 22
mph, followed by light winds Tuesday afternoon below 10 mph. Winds
are then expected to kick back up from the northwest again by
Wednesday afternoon at 10-15 mph and is expected to elevate to
10-15 mph each afternoon towards the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hour period.
Breezy southwesterly winds expected to diminish overnight with the
exception of KELY expected to have elevated winds at 10-15kts
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Elevated fire weather conditions are currently
found across central NEvada where a very dry air mass continues to
filter into the area. Relative humidity ahas fallen to near 10%
in many valleys along and south of US-50 and in eastern Elko
county. The low RH combined with increased southwest winds due to
an approaching low pressure trough is creating elevated fire
weather conditions across east-central Nevada. Conditions will
deteriorate across fire weather zone 425 Sunday as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. A red flag warning is in effect for
fire weather zone 425 for Sunday for gusty southwest winds and
single digit relative humidity.

In addition, a few showers and dry thunderstorms are expected
across far northern Nevada in the northern portions of fire
weather zones 437, 438, 469 and 470 as the upper-level trough and
cold front impact the region. There is a high confidence in little
rainfall with gusty outflow winds and some cloud to ground
lightning expected Sunday afternoon but it is not expected to be
widespread. Only a 5% chance or so of wetting rains exists across
far northern Nevada Sunday.

Elevated northwest winds will persist into Monday with a warming
trend, dry conditions and lighter winds returning Tuesday as a
strong high pressure system builds over the region next week.
Temperatures generally will be in the lower to mid 90s with some
upper 90s in lower valleys by Friday of next week.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM PDT Sunday White Pine and
Northeast Nye Counties.

&&

$$

93/97/97/93