451
FXUS65 KLKN 030844
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
144 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry through the weekend with sunny skies, northerly
afternoon and evening winds along with temperatures trending
warmer. Well above normal temperatures expected this weekend and
into early next week with most locations in the 90s to low 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night. High pressure
centered just off the central CA coast continues to provide
northwesterly flow aloft across NV. Dry and sunny this afternoon
with NW winds of 8 to 18 mph gusting 15 to 25 mph in most valleys,
with gusts to 30 mph possible over mountains. Temperatures will
be near normal today. Tonight into Independence Day the center of
the high to our west will begin to move onshore into CA, with
500DM heights over NV rising 2-4DMs by Thursday afternoon. Dry
and sunny conditions persist, however temperatures will be on the
rise with most locations warming by 2-4 degrees Thursday.

Thursday evening fireworks forecast: the region can expect clear
skies, temperatures ranging from upper 60s to mid 70s, with
northerly winds of 5-10 mph and gusts of 10-15 mph. The
combination of low relative humidity Thursday evening (generally
5-20%) coupled with dry grasses may make for easy fire starts
should any fireworks get out of control.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday.

A persistent high pressure center off the western coast of the
CONUS will be the culprit responsible for hot dry conditions over
the 7 days. These conditions will lead to elevated HeatRisk values
across the CWA through the end of the forecast period.

Upper air models depict a ridge-trough-ridge pattern across the
CONUS Friday morning. The ridge over the west coast promotes NW
flow over the CWA that will decrease in speed through the weekend
as the associated jet streak embedded in the flow lifts slightly
to the north as the ridge amplifies. Despite this amplification
the ridge and high pressure center will persist just offshore with
the axis of the ridge straddling the western coastline of the
CONUS through Tuesday morning. Ensemble model guidance lends some
confidence to the ridges slow migration eastward by the middle of
next week.

Due to the non-existent propagation of the ridge MAJOR HeatRisk
values are expected in the extreme western and southern portions
of the CWA by Friday. Major HeatRisk values are associated with
adverse impacts on health systems, heat-sensitive industries and
infrastructure when effective cooling and adequate hydration
practices are not undertaken. Confidence is high that temperatures
in the western and southern CWA will reach the upper 90s Friday
afternoon. The heat will increase across the region through the
region with most of the CWA (excluding higher elevations and
extreme northern Elko County) experiencing an 85-95% chance of
high temperatures greater than 95F Sunday and Monday afternoon. By
this time portions of western Humboldt County and Nye County to
the south will experience EXTREME HeatRisk values. These
abnormally warm temperatures will continue through the end of the
forecast period even as the ridge begins to push to the east. For
more information on HeatRisk value thresholds visit
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions and clear skies are expected through
Wednesday as high pressure builds over the region from the west. A
noticeable northwest wind is expected at all TAF sites during the
day on Wednesday from around 18Z to 02Z, or shortly after sunset.
Sustained wind speeds of 10 knots with gusts around 20 knots are
expected. Otherwise, light drainage winds of 5 knots or less are
expected tonight and Wednesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry with temperatures trending warmer through the
weekend. This afternoon and early evening there will be elevated
fire weather conditions across most zones with RHs in the single
digits in combination with northwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 30
mph.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

96/99/93/96