649
FXUS65 KLKN 042035
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
135 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A heat dome will continue to build over the region
bringing a prolonged impactful heat event to Nevada. Heat impacts
are almost certain as valley temperatures reach or exceed 100F for
many locales over the weekend before expanding eastward into eastern
Nevada early next week. Gusty winds across northeastern Elko county
and low humidity will lead to elevated to critical fire weather
conditions Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday Night

Gradually expanding and strengthening ridge over the western U.S.
will promote increasing temperatures across the area through the end
of the week. Temperatures will already approach 100F in lower
valleys in Humboldt county Friday afternoon. A very dry air mass in
place and excellent radiation cooling environment under mostly clear
skies will promote 45+ degree diurnal temperature swings both
tonight and Friday night with lows in the 50s tonight, warming
slightly Friday night but still quite cool and a brief relief to the
hotter temperatures ahead. With the ridge positioned to the west of
the state, northwest winds during the day are expected Friday with
light, terrain drainage winds overnight.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday

High pressure continues to build over the Great Basin with hot and
dry weather under mostly sunny and clear skies firmly in place thru
the period. Northwesterly flow resides over the region Saturday and
Sunday with a jet maxima skirting northeast Nevada. This will
produce afternoon breezes with the strongest gusts focused across
northeast Elko County. Northwest breezes with gusts generally 20 to
30 mph can be expected throughout the region. High pressure will
move directly over the forecast area early next week with slightly
more modest breezes and gusts likely remaining less than 30mph.

Hot weather and a continued warming trend will be the main concern
thru the long term period with heat watches and warnings going into
effect for portions of the forecast area Saturday, currently
remaining valid into the middle of next week. Daytime high
temperatures will be near record readings and observations in the
low 100s will be noted primarily in Humboldt County Saturday, but
become more prevalent and widespread as the period progresses.
Overnight lows look to reside in the 50s Saturday night, and will
gradually warn thru the period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through Friday. Light
northwest winds this afternoon around 10 knots across central and
northern Nevada will diminish as light terrain-driven drainage
winds take hold tonight. A few gusts nearing 20 knots are possible
at KELY and KTPH. A strengthening upper-level ridge will bring
increasing temperatures to many areas leading to increasing density
altitude particularly over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Light northwest winds of around 10 knots are
expected this afternoon and Friday afternoon with light
downslope/downvalley winds developing overnight. A weak upper-level
disturbance will bring increased winds Saturday across the area with
the strongest winds across northeastern Elko county. Winds combined
with very low daytime RH will result in critical fire weather
conditions across at least the northern portion of fire zone 470 in
eastern Elko county. Probability of wind gusts reaching or exceeding
30 mph are highest across northeastern Elko county with values of 50-
60 along mid and upper slopes of ranges. However, relative humidity
will be quite low, less than 10%, during the afternoon hours. A
prolonged period of single digit RH values during the day and poor
overnight recoveries is expected next week but winds will be light.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT
Wednesday Humboldt County.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening Eastern Elko County.

Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Wednesday
morning Northeastern Nye County...Northern Lander County and
Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County...Southern
Lander County and Southern Eureka County.

&&

$$

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