725
FXUS64 KLIX 152355
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
655 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night, generally a summertime pattern
will continue. Scattered daily showers and storms will be
possible, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.
PoPs are not high enough though to hinder the heat enough for
tomorrow though and likely into Wednesday. High temperatures will
be in the mid 90s with heat index values 108 to 112 degrees
forecast. In terms of the criteria, we will be pretty close to
108 degrees heat index values generally with pockets of higher
feels like temps likely. But, the overnight lows will be right
around 80 degrees for much of the area again tonight, which will
add to the heat stress tomorrow. And that combined with the
prolonged (multiple days now) heat, will contribute to the heat
stress and increase the impacts felt by people. Consequently, we
have issued a heat advisory for tomorrow for our entire area
except immediate coastal Louisiana from 10am through 7pm CT.
Additionally, in urban areas, it is important to note that the
heat will linger into the evening hours longer than rural areas,
so the heat stress will also linger a bit longer than most places. People
should take precautions to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks
when working outside! These temperatures and heat index values
will likely continue into Wednesday, so heat advisories may be
needed for Wednesday as well, but that will be looked at more
closely on the next forecast cycle. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Thursday through the weekend, a boundary will be moving into the
area and lingering for a few days, increasing rain chances across
the area. Looking at the models, generally numerous showers and
storms will be possible Thursday through the weekend, especially
during peak daytime heating hours as storms fire up along the
boundary. These storms will have the potential for training, given
the low wind shear. And the PW values are around 2", which is
above the 75th percentile for the SPC sounding climatology. As a
result, the rainfall will be quite efficient (as has been the case
most of the summer), but with a higher percentage of coverage
(more of the area spatially will see storms). This combined with
the possibility of training, given environmental parameters, means
that the risk for flash flooding and locally heavy rainfall will
be the primary concern with these storms. Some lightning and gusty
winds (30-40mph) will be possible, but for most people, the main
concern will be the potential for flash flooding. This is
something that is still a little uncertain, looking at the model
consensus, in terms of overall amounts, especially given the
variability currently in where that boundary sets up. If it
lingers over the I-10/12 corridor, as model trends are indicating,
it will pose more of a problem, given the urban vulnerabilities.
If it sets up elsewhere in more rural areas, these places should
be at less of a risk due to the higher flash flood guidance and
absorption. This will be something to monitor as we go through
the next couple of days and things develop a bit more. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with the main
impact being isolated to scattered diurnal showers and
thunderstorms. Once again, with coverage being generally low at
any given time, do not have enough confidence in timing to include
any TEMPO or prevailing group. However, have included PROB30 or
VCTS groups at all terminals to cover the broader windows when
impacts will be possible. Future updates may be able to add TEMPO
groups for more specific impacts as confidence in timing and
location increase.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Benign marine conditions will be in place through the forecast
period. Southerly and moderate (10-15kts) winds are forecast
through the next week. Scattered showers and storms are possible
daily, which could be a hazard to mariners with the threat of
lightning and gusty winds (30-40mph). MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  94  74  94 /  20  30  10  50
BTR  78  97  79  96 /  10  40  10  60
ASD  78  95  78  94 /  10  40  10  50
MSY  79  94  79  93 /  10  40  10  60
GPT  78  93  79  92 /  20  30  10  50
PQL  78  95  77  95 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...MSW