Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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679 FXUS64 KLCH 081037 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 537 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 502 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Persistent showers and storms will continue as Beryls bands move across the area. 24h radar estimated rainfall maximums are in the 3- 5 inch range, with those higher totals in southern Jefferson Co and Cameron Par. Forecast PWATs today are well over the 90th percentile, with some near their daily max. As of 4AM, Beryl made landfall near Matagorda as a category 1 hurricane with sustained wind speeds near 80 MPH. It will continue to weaken as it moves inland, however we will still have impacts in our area. Specifically focusing on "inland" impacts, we currently have a Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Lower Jefferson and a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Hardin, Tyler, and Upper Jefferson. Then we have a Coastal Flood Warning in effect for Cameron and a Coastal Flood Advisory for Southern Orange, Southern Calcasieu, Lower Vermilion, Lower Iberia and Lower St. Mary. There is a Flood Watch in effect for all of our SETX Counties. Lastly, as the environment is conducive for tornadoes, we do have a Tornado Watch in effect for Hardin and Jefferson. Additional rainfall amounts over the next 3 days will be in the 2-4 inch range, however for SETX most of that is expected today with trace amounts days 2&3. Then for parts of coastal LA, those higher totals are expected over today and tomorrow. It is certainly worth noting that locally higher amounts will be possible. As a result, today parts of SETX are in a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall with a Slight to Marginal Risk area east of there. Tomorrow Beryl will be over the ArkLaTx with bands expected to set up / train along coastal Louisiana. We are highlighted in a day 2 Slight Risk ERO as a result. Thanks to rain and overcast skies, highs today will be much cooler in the low to mid 80s across SETX and parts of west central to southwestern Louisiana. Unfortunately they will be a bit warmer in the lower 90s across parts of central to south central Louisiana. With that and higher dewpoints, it would not be out of the realm of possibility to see near or above Heat Advisory criteria. Even with Beryl moving off as an extratropical low going into the latter half of the period, some moisture will still stick around. As a result, the area can look forward to showers and storms mainly in the afternoon to evening timeframe. Tomorrow and Wednesday temps will be in the low to mid 90s across the entire area with lows in the 70s. A weak frontal boundary will help in limiting higher dewpoints during that time, with no heat hazards expected. Stigger/87 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 502 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 A weakness will persist over the region south of a midlevel trough extending from the central CONUS into the Great Lakes. The trough will gradually lift northeast by the weekend, with ridging over the SE coast building west across the Gulf coast. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be mainly diurnally driven through the period, with greater coverage expected Thursday and Friday before becoming more scattered by the weekend. PWATs, while still somewhat elevated, are not expected to be as extreme as they were prior to and during Beryl`s landfall. Still, with values hovering between roughly 1.7 and 2.1 inches, locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible in some locations. High temperatures along and south of I-10 will be near 90 or into the lower 90s Thursday and Friday when shower coverage is expected to be higher. Further north, highs are expected to reach the middle 90s. By the weekend and into early next week, daytime temperatures will gradually increase as ridging aloft builds, with highs reaching the middle to upper 90s. A return to Heat Advisory headlines could be in the works by Sunday and Monday as maximum heat index readings are forecast to reach 108 to 112 degrees in a few locations. 24 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Forecast for the terminals will depend on the what goes on with the track and structure of Beryl. Occasional showers will rotate inland and be at the vicinity of KARA/KLFT/KLCH/KBPT through the night. Winds and squalls after will increase between 08/09z-11z at KBPT as Beryl moves into the middle Texas coast. Wind gusts over tropical storm force, 34 knots, will occur with gusts to over 40 knots quite possible through the morning hours. Winds and occasional rain squalls will gradually increase during the late morning at KLCH and into the afternoon at KAEX/KLFT/KARA as Beryl begins to move northeast across east Texas and rain bands start to expand off to the east from the center. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 502 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Beryl has officially made landfall this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected today over Sabine Lake and Sabine Pass, Texas and adjacent coastal waters westward, with Small Craft Advisories further east. As Beryl moves further inland, winds and seas will gradually subside going into tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 91 74 91 70 / 50 70 40 10 LCH 87 76 90 75 / 90 70 60 30 LFT 93 79 92 77 / 50 60 80 30 BPT 86 74 92 74 / 100 60 50 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ073-074. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ241-252>254. TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ180-201-515-615. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ616. Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ180-201-259>262-515- 516-615-616. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ430-450-470. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ432-452-455- 472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...07