Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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570 FXUS64 KLCH 051757 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1257 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1055 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Very warm and humid conditions noted across the region this morning, and morning heat index readings are already climbing well over 100 degrees. Made some minor adjustments to hourly Td based on obs and expected trends through the afternoon and this resulted in some locations reaching advisory criteria across our northern and eastern zones. Thus, issued a Heat Advisory for this afternoon for these affected areas. Beyond this, KLCH radar shows some scattered showers and storms developing over coastal areas and portions of Acadiana, and convection is expected to expand in coverage as boundary interactions combine with heat and moisture. Made some minor tweaks to PoPs through the rest of the day to align with current radar and expected trends. In the meantime, we also continue to monitor the latest on Beryl, which is currently crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is still expected to emerge over the southern Gulf tonight, and strengthen back into a hurricane as it crosses the southwest Gulf over the weekend. Latest forecast from NHC shows the system making landfall along the south TX coast early Monday. Small shifts in the track forecast will be likely in the coming days and will be monitored for potential impacts to SE TX and possibly SW LA, but at this time, the main issues continue to be coastal flooding and increasing winds/seas over the coastal waters. The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will also become a concern, especially in the early to midweek timeframe as the system moves inland across TX. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the n- cntl Gulf maintaining wswrly low-level flow over the region, while a weak frontal system is noted extending from the OH Valley swwd to the Red River Valley. Much further south, Hurricane Beryl was nearing the Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor imagery shows a flat ridge sitting over the Gulf Coast at this time while a weak trof is noted over the center of the country...a series of weak disturbances embedded in the trof continue to swing by to our north. Satellite imagery shows quite a bit of cirrus from earlier convection streaming over the area while sfc obs depict a warm muggy night ongoing. Local 88Ds look devoid of nocturnal convection at this time. Main adjustments to the forecast as far as today goes was to trim back on rain chances a bit. Despite very good moisture in place across the region, blended guidance seemed to be overdoing things from a POPs perspective over the past 24 hours, with limited convective development yesterday and now with hardly any typical summertime nocturnal activity noted on radar. Forecast soundings indicate a little better moisture today, with PWAT values basically off the chart...however, categorical rain chances just seemed high given the weak ridging aloft trying to hold on. CAM guidance really wasn`t bullish on showers/storms today at last check. Did allow for the weak front drifting swd into the area today so didn`t drop POPs as much as I might have...basically kept all zones in the chance neighborhood for now. Whatever convection does develop should diminish with sunset, although it is interesting to note that the CAMs seemed to want to bring in more rainfall after dark on some sort of resultant outflow/MCS-like feature...thus held onto small rain chances til about midnight. Thereafter, we could see the return of coastal nocturnal activity. Temperature-wise, despite a fair amount of cloud cover and the potential for rainfall this afternoon, guidance is advertising highs in the mid 90s across much of the area. With dewpoints expected to run in the mid 70s, heat index values managed to peak just below heat advisory criteria today...not to say a few spots could briefly sneak up to 108 or higher, but not expecting excessive apparent temps to linger much more than an hour or so. With the ridging aloft progged to further weaken as we move into the weekend, along with the persistent good moisture and the lingering sfc boundary, did allow for rain chances to increase somewhat across the area on Saturday...although still undercut blended guidance to a degree. Cooler temps (mainly lower 90s highs) from the precip/enhanced cloud cover should keep heat index values from getting anywhere near criteria. By Sunday, the boundary begins lifting north and out of the area, leaving daytime heating as the primary driver for convective development. Elevated rain chances linger in the forecast given the good moisture expected to still be around, but POPs largely back into the chance category are being carried this morning. The latest track from NHC for TC Beryl brings the center of the storm ashore in the vicinity of KBRO on Sunday as a category 1 hurricane. On this track, the primary impacts on our area initially appear to be minor coastal flooding on long period swells coming in off the Gulf. 25 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The extended period forecast is predicated on the track and intensity of Hurricane Beryl and could be subject to significant revisions should that track or intensity deviate substantially from present forecasts. Increasing seas as swells from the system along with elevated winds over the coastal waters will continue Monday likely resulting in at least minor coastal flooding. Meanwhile, a quasistationary upper level trof situated across the central U.S. with several energy waves translating through it will continue to provide a focus for higher than climo PoPs Monday. Forecast soundings depict PWAT values of 2.1 - 2.3 which will continue to allow for very efficient rain processes and a low end risk for flash flooding. By Tuesday, there is a pretty solid consensus between guidance that the remnants of Beryl will begin lifting across eastern Texas influenced by the upper trof. As this surge of even higher moisture content works into the region, a more considerable flash flood threat will be possible both Tuesday and Wednesday. As is often the case with decaying and ejecting tropical systems, there is some indication within guidance that a trailing line of training convection could set up somewhere across the region late Wednesday into Thursday. That said, history has shown that attempting to predict exactly where this will occur is futile until shortly before it actually gets underway. Regardless, the remnants of Beryl should be largely clear of the area by late Thursday with the area returning to more typical, diurnally driven convection by next weekend. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Generally VFR conditions to prevail through the period with SCT daytime CU sometimes becoming BKN with bases AOA 3500 FT. Widely scattered to scattered SHRA/TSRA developing early this afternoon around the area, but potential at any particular airport warrants no more than VC mention. The exception is KLCH where an outflow boundary apparent on radar could promote a shower or storm over the next hour. Convection should diminish an hour or two after sunset, then redevelop again by late morning Saturday. Winds will be mostly light and variable through the period. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 High pressure aloft will continue to weaken into the weekend, allowing for another day of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms today. Convective coverage looks to become more widespread over the weekend as ridging overhead fully breaks down. Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the next couple of days. Winds and seas will begin to increase by Sunday as the pressure gradient begins to tighten over the coastal region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 95 74 91 73 / 50 50 70 10 LCH 92 76 90 77 / 40 30 70 20 LFT 94 77 92 78 / 40 50 70 20 BPT 95 77 93 78 / 40 30 70 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>029-033-044- 045-055-152>154-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-259-260. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...24