556
FXUS64 KLCH 121135
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
635 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a low pressure trough
from the Great Lakes into the mid-MS Valley, with ridging over
the W Atlantic into the E Gulf and across the SW states. Between
these features the region is situated on the western periphery of
the ridge across FL, with a weakness/shear zone over SE TX into W
LA. Moisture remains plentiful with PWATs currently near 2 inches
per latest LAPS Layer Precip H2O and GOES TPW.

At the surface, the wind field remains fairly weak with a weak
and diffuse boundary lingering over the area. Very warm and muggy
conditions prevail with air temperatures in the middle to upper
70s and dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s, with no more than a
3 degree spread noted in obs.

KLCH radar shows some widely scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms developing over the nearshore waters and coastal
zones, and this trend will continue into the morning hours, with
convection spreading inland south of I-10 early today.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Today will be similar to yesterday as the weakness aloft will
provide enough support for convection to develop and expand in
coverage through the day. Whatever is left of the weak surface
boundary should provide enough focus for scattered to numerous
showers and storms, which will be augmented by the seabreeze as it
lifts northward across the area during the day. Increasing
instability thanks to daytime heating and abundant moisture in
place with PWATs between 1.8 and 2.2 inches will result in some
storms capable of producing heavy downpours. In addition,
forecast soundings should midlevel lapse rates between 6.5 and 7.0
degrees/KM across the northern zones, so while an organized
severe threat is not expected, the potential for a few storms to
produce brief sub-severe downburst wind gusts or some small hail
cannot be ruled out. With widespread cloud cover and fairly good
coverage of convection expected today, temperatures should stay
near or even a little below July normals, with highs reaching the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

Showers and storms should dissipate by sunset or shortly
thereafter as heating wanes and conditions stabilize. The weakness
aloft will migrate northwest as the ridge over the eastern Gulf
builds west. At the surface, high pressure will likewise expand
west across the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a prevailing onshore
expected to develop and persist through the weekend.

Despite ridging building over the region, moisture and
instability will stick around allowing for a daily chance for
showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. Activity will be mainly
scattered, forced by the seabreeze and other mesoscale boundaries.
PWATs are progged to stay elevated around 2 inches so the
potential for heavy downpours will continue. General coverage is
expected to decrease and this will allow a gradual uptick in
temperatures each afternoon, with highs expected to reach the
middle to upper 90s by Sunday. Southerly winds will keep dewpoint
temperatures in the lower to middle 70s and this will push
apparent temps upward to between 103 and 110 degrees, and the
possibility for heat advisories will be monitored.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The long range is dominated by a broad, slack ridging across much of
the Southern CONUS. Locally, forecast soundings and mid-level
tropospheric analysis indicates the ridging will exhibit little
subsidence throughout the remainder of the upcoming work week. Thus,
our daily pop up to periodic scattered thundershowers will continue
to persist through the mid week. Highs will remain a little more
climatological norms along the coast while remaining roughly 3 to 5
above normal trending into the mid 90s for further interior SETX
and SWLA locations under predominantly southerly flow.

Meanwhile upstream, an upper level shortwave will keep positive tilt
while shifting across the Great Lakes and New England through
Thursday building dry high pressure across the Midwest. Further
south, a stationary boundary will stall near the ARKLATEX area which
will provide some weak focus for more numerous shower / storms.
These signals remain well to the north, however, given a relatively
moist column for summer season, further opportunities for showers /
convection remain higher near coastal locations.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Other than some intermittent patchy light fog, conditions are VFR
across the area. Scattered SHRA/TSRA are already developing south
of I-10, with storms currently affecting BPT. Convection is
expected to continue to develop as it moves north, potentially
affecting the southern terminals from now through early this
afternoon and AEX after 18Z. Lower vsbys/cigs can be expected
during periods of convection along with the possibility of brief
gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR should prevail through the period with
light winds expected.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Light winds and low seas should prevail for the next several days
and no headlines are anticipated for the coastal waters. Variable
winds today will trend more onshore over the weekend and into next
week as surface high pressure expands across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered showers and storms will be possible into early
next week, with the best coverage from late night into the
morning hours.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  73  95  75 /  30  20  50  10
LCH  88  76  91  77 /  50  10  50   0
LFT  91  77  94  78 /  40  10  60  10
BPT  90  76  92  76 /  60  10  50   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24