916
FXUS63 KLBF 120559
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather across
  western Nebraska this evening, mainly west of Highway 83. A
  Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains for north central
  Nebraska. Primary threats remain wind and hail, though a
  tornado cannot be ruled out.

- Near daily risk of showers and thunderstorms across the area
  through Thursday, with the potential for beneficial rainfall.

- Temperatures gradually warm and return to near seasonal
  normals by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Convective initiation is underway across portions of southwest South
Dakota and southeast Wyoming this afternoon. Although the persistent
stratus today limited the building of CAPE, recent clearing has
allowed for some build up of MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg across
portions of the Panhandle. Effective shear values remain quite
supportive of severe weather this afternoon and evening. The
environment continues to ripen for supercell activity later this
afternoon and evening. While the primary threats remain for large
hail and damaging wind gusts, the low level helicity may be enhanced
enough in vicinity of the warm front to the point that a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out. Another thing worth keeping an eye on
with thunderstorms this evening will be the rain potential. PWAT
values around 1.25 inches fall between the 75th and 90th percentile
for early August, so storms could be quite efficient rain producers.
Expecting the higher rain amounts will be across north central
Nebraska this evening with more training and clustering cells moving
in from South Dakota. In general, expecting between half an inch to
one inch, though locally heavier amounts are possible.

As storms move out tonight, stratus clouds return overnight, keeping
overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. With recent rainfall and
fairly light winds, there is a decent chance for patchy fog to
develop overnight, mainly along and south of Interstate 80.

For Monday, an upper level ridge will attempt to push in from the
west and attempt to settle over western Nebraska. A shortwave
pushing through the upper level flow may provide enough upper level
support for a surface boundary to generate storms across eastern
Wyoming and Colorado. Storms should continue to push eastward into
southwest Nebraska, bringing another chance of precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Upper level ridging is expected to be fully settled over western
Nebraska by early Tuesday morning. Guidance picks up on a few
embedded shortwaves tracking through the upper level flow throughout
the week. This will keep a near daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms across western and north central Nebraska through
Thursday. This is further reinforced by decent low level moisture
advection through the week, so certainly could bring beneficial
rainfall across the region. By late week, another ridge begins to
set up, which begins to limit the rain chances to around 20 percent.
Also worth mentioning, as the shortwaves continue to push through
this week, this should help limit temperatures a little bit under
the ridging. Expecting that temperatures will warm up, but only to
near seasonal average through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Widespread stratus and fog remains prevalent across much of
western and north central Nebraska. This is leading to degraded
flight conditions including IFR and LIFR categories.

Expect IFR and LIFR conditions to increase across the area as
stratus gradually lowers and fog increases. Ceilings will likely
fall to < 500 ft AGL including visibilities below 1SM for many
locations, including LBF. Have a fairly prolonged period of LIFR
at LBF lasting through sunrise before conditions improve. While
similar conditions are likely at VTN, confidence in a longer
duration event is low so will cover with a TEMPO group for LIFR
CIGs and vsbys for now.

Expect a return to VFR by midday Monday with only mid-level and
high-level clouds expected through the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...NMJ