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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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916 FXUS63 KLBF 120559 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather across western Nebraska this evening, mainly west of Highway 83. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains for north central Nebraska. Primary threats remain wind and hail, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. - Near daily risk of showers and thunderstorms across the area through Thursday, with the potential for beneficial rainfall. - Temperatures gradually warm and return to near seasonal normals by mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Convective initiation is underway across portions of southwest South Dakota and southeast Wyoming this afternoon. Although the persistent stratus today limited the building of CAPE, recent clearing has allowed for some build up of MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg across portions of the Panhandle. Effective shear values remain quite supportive of severe weather this afternoon and evening. The environment continues to ripen for supercell activity later this afternoon and evening. While the primary threats remain for large hail and damaging wind gusts, the low level helicity may be enhanced enough in vicinity of the warm front to the point that a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Another thing worth keeping an eye on with thunderstorms this evening will be the rain potential. PWAT values around 1.25 inches fall between the 75th and 90th percentile for early August, so storms could be quite efficient rain producers. Expecting the higher rain amounts will be across north central Nebraska this evening with more training and clustering cells moving in from South Dakota. In general, expecting between half an inch to one inch, though locally heavier amounts are possible. As storms move out tonight, stratus clouds return overnight, keeping overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. With recent rainfall and fairly light winds, there is a decent chance for patchy fog to develop overnight, mainly along and south of Interstate 80. For Monday, an upper level ridge will attempt to push in from the west and attempt to settle over western Nebraska. A shortwave pushing through the upper level flow may provide enough upper level support for a surface boundary to generate storms across eastern Wyoming and Colorado. Storms should continue to push eastward into southwest Nebraska, bringing another chance of precipitation. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level ridging is expected to be fully settled over western Nebraska by early Tuesday morning. Guidance picks up on a few embedded shortwaves tracking through the upper level flow throughout the week. This will keep a near daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across western and north central Nebraska through Thursday. This is further reinforced by decent low level moisture advection through the week, so certainly could bring beneficial rainfall across the region. By late week, another ridge begins to set up, which begins to limit the rain chances to around 20 percent. Also worth mentioning, as the shortwaves continue to push through this week, this should help limit temperatures a little bit under the ridging. Expecting that temperatures will warm up, but only to near seasonal average through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Widespread stratus and fog remains prevalent across much of western and north central Nebraska. This is leading to degraded flight conditions including IFR and LIFR categories. Expect IFR and LIFR conditions to increase across the area as stratus gradually lowers and fog increases. Ceilings will likely fall to < 500 ft AGL including visibilities below 1SM for many locations, including LBF. Have a fairly prolonged period of LIFR at LBF lasting through sunrise before conditions improve. While similar conditions are likely at VTN, confidence in a longer duration event is low so will cover with a TEMPO group for LIFR CIGs and vsbys for now. Expect a return to VFR by midday Monday with only mid-level and high-level clouds expected through the end of the forecast period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Richie AVIATION...NMJ