Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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324 FXUS63 KLBF 131739 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1239 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Patchy fog will continue through mid-morning mainly across southwest Nebraska with visibilities down to 2 miles at times. * A Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms is possible this evening across southwest and north central Nebraska with large hail and strong winds being the main threats. * Near daily rain showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end of the week, although, the severe potential remains uncertain. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Patchy fog will continue to overspread the region impacting mainly southwest Nebraska (along and south of I-80). Latest observations show visibilities dropping to near 4 miles at times although, still expected a bit more development, which may allow visibilities to drop to near 2 miles (locally lower in river valleys and low lying areas). Plenty of low level moisture and light winds will keep fog around through mid-morning before diminishing after the sun rises and the boundary layer mixes. The main weather concern in the short term will be the potential for severe thunderstorms this evening across much of southwest and portions of north central Nebraska. With a frontal boundary located across northern Colorado and into Kansas, storms will initiate just to the north across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska and push eastward through the evening. Moderate instability will exist across Nebraska this evening along with plenty of low level moisture creating a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. In addition, any convection will be aided by a strengthening low level jet. Main threats with these storms will initially be large hail as storms remain discrete before becoming a damaging wind threat later in the evening. Storms are expected to exit the region to the east early Wednesday morning (2 to 5am CT). Widespread flooding is not expected to be a concern, but some low lying areas or streams could see some rises as rain falls on an already saturated ground. In addition, significant low level moisture will be present once again across the region due to recent rainfall and thunderstorms. As winds diminish and any storms move out of the region by late evening, the environment will become favorable for fog development again on Monday night. This time development will be favored across north central and central Nebraska with mainly patchy fog expected. However, some denser fog is possible along the river valleys and low lying areas. At this time, no headlines are expected, but this may change as visibility drops overnight. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 A fairly active weather pattern remains in place through the end of the week as a series of disturbances continues to impact the region. At this time, the best chance for severe storms in the extended period will be on Wednesday evening as plenty of moisture exists and the low level jet strengthens. At this time the main concern will be stronger winds as thunderstorms develop and begin to form a convective line. Although, there is also the possibility of an isolated tornado, especially if a discrete supercell can develop early and take full advantage of the ample instability. For the rest of the week, will continue to monitor trends over the next few days regarding severe potential. Temperatures return to near to slightly below normal as temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s with some locations hitting the upper 80s through the weekend. These highs will be near to slightly below normal (normal in the upper 80s). Low temperatures will also be slightly below normal (normal lows in the upper 50s to low 60s) as they are forecasted to drop into the mid to upper 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Areas of MVFR/IFR/local LIFR in low or very low ceilings across wrn Nebraska will gradually improve to MVFR by around 21z this afternoon. A return to IFR/LIFR in low/very low ceilings and vsbys is expected to commence around 03z this evening and last until 15z or later Wednesday morning. It`s worth noting an eastward moving cold front Wednesday morning will improve flight conditions from west to east. Aviators will also have to negotiate scattered to numerous thunderstorms from 01z this evening through 12z Wednesday morning, generally affecting areas along and south of highway 2. This flight concern is associated with a UA disturbance moving east northeast out of Colorado this afternoon. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...CDC