054
FXUS63 KLBF 030908
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
408 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected this
  afternoon and evening. Some storms may contain large hail and
  damaging winds. An isolated tornado also possible. Additional
  strong thunderstorms are possible late this evening and
  overnight.

- Areas of heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding this
  afternoon into tonight.

- Chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day on
  Independence Day, mainly north central NE. Dry and sunny on
  Friday.

- Thunderstorm chances return Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Zonal flow aloft will extend across the Central Plains today
ahead of an upper trough located from central Montana southward
into Utah. This will develop a surface trough of low pressure
across the leeside of Colorado and southeast Wyoming, with a
warm front extending east across north central Nebraska.
Dewpoints will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s today across
the area with highs reaching the low to mid 80s. Isolated thunderstorms
will begin to develop ahead of this surface trough and near the
warm front soon after 18Z, with an increase in coverage to
scattered and numerous by mid to late afternoon. The latest CAMs
consensus is for isolated supercells to congeal into a line or
clusters of storms by 21Z and spread eastward during the late
afternoon into the early evening hours.

The latest SPC Day 1 Outlook has a Slight Risk across a large
part of western Nebraska which includes all areas west of a
Springview through Burwell line. Very large hail 2 inches or
greater in diameter is possible near and west of Highway 83,
with damaging winds 75 mph or greater possible, especially near
and south of Highway 2. Deep layer shear will be sufficient at
35-45kts prior to storm initiation. MUCAPEs will reach near
2000J/kg, and elongated hodographs are expected due to strong
speed shear above 700 mb. Discrete supercells will be capable
of very large hail and an isolated tornado, mainly near and west
of Highway 83. As storms congeal late afternoon through early
evening, the transition to a greater damaging wind threat, with
some large hail. Most of the CAMS show a line of storms existing
the eastern zones by 01Z-02Z. Heavy rainfall is likely with all
storms. A MArginal Risk for excessive rainfall extends across
Nebraska. Agree with the previous forecasters discussion that,
the expected steering winds will be perpendicular to any line
segments of storms which do develop. This should ensure storm
motion is quick enough to lessen flooding potential. Storm total
rainfall of 1-2 inches is forecast north of Highways 2 and 91.
Still, areas across the eastern portions of north central
Nebraska which recently have had flooding would be more prone to
localized flash flooding, with a lesser concern elsewhere.

Late evening and overnight, the upper trough and cold front will
push through, giving a second round of showers and
thunderstorms. A few of these storms may be strong an contain
hail and gusty winds, along with additional rainfall.

On Independence Day, the upper trough will move into the
eastern Dakotas and eastern Nebraska. This will bring a chance
for showers and a few storms, mainly to north central Nebraska.
Southwest Nebraska should remain dry. Dry conditions all areas
during the evening and overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Sunny Friday with below normal highs from 75 to 85 with a
northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Saturday into
Sunday with northwest flow aloft and disturbances crossing the
region. Mid 80s to low 90s Saturday cool to the upper 70s to low
80s Sunday. Highs in the 80s return Monday with 80s to low 90s
by Tuesday. Dry conditions expected Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Winds will generally be light and variable overnight then
become gusty out of the south by late morning with sustained
winds around 10kts and gust of 15 to 20 kts. Thunderstorm
chances increase heading into the afternoon with thunderstorms
possibly developing by early afternoon across northern Nebraska,
then moving south into the Sandhills and southwest and central
Nebraska by late afternoon and evening. Could see gusty,
erratic, as the thunderstorms move through, along with chances
for hail and potential visibility impacts with heavy rainfall.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Gomez