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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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372 FXUS63 KLBF 011937 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 237 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather potential is the concern this afternoon and evening. - Additional chances for scattered thunderstorms will come Wednesday afternoon and evening, possibly severe. - Drier, cooler and more stable weather is expected Thursday and Friday. Moderating temperatures, back to normal for this time of year, for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The severe potential this afternoon and evening is the main concern the next couple of days. Southwest flow aloft has increased across the region as a shortwave embedded within the flow approaches. At the surface, low pressure is deepening across northeast Colorado. A warm front is lifting northward into far southwest Nebraska early this afternoon. Low-level moisture is pooling north of the boundary with surface dew points rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This moisture will combine with afternoon heating and steep mid-level lapse rates...creating very unstable conditions. There is a capping inversion in place early this afternoon, but forcing from the approaching shortwave should help to overcome the cap with convection developing by mid-afternoon. The storm mode will initially be supercells, with the area near and just north of the warm front looking quite favorable for isolated tornado development. The exact location of the warm front will have to be monitored carefully this afternoon. Storms will likely grow upscale into more of a line/QLCS type system as the activity tracks into central and toward eastern Nebraska this evening. Damaging winds would become the main concern as this occurs. Other convection will likely develop within moist upslope flow regime across the Panhandle. Initially these too may have supercell characteristics, but these should grow into more of a loosely organized cluster or line as they track into west central and northern Nebraska by late this afternoon. This activity then weakens by early evening with the main focus farther south near the warm front. Tuesday, a shortwave tracks across the northern plains and drives a cold front and high pressure southward into the region. Despite the surface high settling in, jet dynamics and moisture aloft will keep the threat for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms around for much of the day. As high pressure shifts east of the area Wednesday, return southerly flow develops. This will bring a rapid increase in moisture back into the area...with surface dew points rising into the upper 60s. A weak shortwave will be approaching from the west, with a leeward trough/dryline surging eastward across the Panhandle during the afternoon. Convection will likely initiate along the advancing surface trough...and then move east within a highly sheared instability axis across western into southwest Nebraska during the late afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Upper level low pressure will move slowly move across southern Canada Thursday into the weekend. A cold front will slide southeast through the area Thursday with a drier airmass moving into the area Friday into the weekend. Only slight chances for precipitation are expected during this time along with cooler temperatures. Highs Thursday and Friday may struggle to get out of the lower to mid 70s across northern Nebraska. Highs do moderate some for the weekend, ranging from the 80s across northern Nebraska to the lower 90s across southwest Nebraska. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Lower MVFR and IFR ceilings will gradually lift across the area this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and linger into this evening. VFR conditions are expected to prevail from late this afternoon through tonight and into Tuesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Taylor