800
FXUS63 KLBF 022328
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday
afternoon/evening.

- Quiet conditions expected for Independence Day and Friday.

- Thunderstorm chances increase for Saturday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored over the
Mississippi Delta region with a ridge extending north northeast
into the eastern Great Lakes. Another strong high was located
approximately 800 miles off the coast of northern California.
Between the highs, a trough of low pressure was present from
central Wyoming south into the Four Corners. Another low was
located over southern Manitoba. At the surface, low pressure was
centered over central Manitoba with a cold front extending
south into southeastern Nebraska, then southwest into
southwestern Kansas. Low pressure was also located along the
front in north central Kansas. Abundant mid and high level cloud
cover, in advance of the Wyoming disturbance (mentioned above)
continued to stream across the area this afternoon. This has led
to some light rain showers across the area which have
dissipated by midday. Another area of thunderstorms continues to
track across the western Sandhills ATTM. This activity had
produced some 40+ MPH wind gusts at Alliance earlier and
continues to be monitored. Readings this afternoon ranted from
71 degrees at Gordon, to 80 degrees at Imperial and Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Conditions should be relatively quiet tonight across the
forecast area. Ongoing isolated storms over the Sandhills, is
expected to dissipate by 6 PM CT per the latest CAM solutions.
With the loss of surface heating this evening, skies are
expected to clear for the majority of the forecast area.
However, we may see some stratus development in the far
southwest and southeastern panhandle overnight. This is a result
of a plume of low level moisture pushing from far NW Kansas,
NNW into far northeastern Colorado and the southern Nebraska
Panhandle. Overnight lows will be in the 50s with possibly
warmer temps in the far SW if moisture return and stratus
materialize. Shifting to Wednesday, it is shaping up to be an
active day across the area. A surface trough/dryline will become
established early afternoon across the central Panhandle. With
the latest CAMS and the NAM12 soln from this morning, convection
initiates quickly along this boundary in the 18z-20z time
frame. Ample deep layer shear and SB CAPES of 2500+ J/KG will
allow storms to quickly grow and reach strong to severe limits
quickly. The main severe threats initially will be large hail
and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado if storms can remain
discrete, particularly west of highway 83. Very steep lapse
rates in the hail growth zone and computed CAPE in the H700 to
H600 layer exceeds 500 j/kg tomorrow afternoon. In addition,
strong DCAPE is noted from the Panhandle east into the western
Sandhills, supporting a strong wind threat. As the afternoon
progresses, the severe mode will begin to shift to more of a
wind threat as storms become more linear in nature. However,
with a strengthening low level jet Wednesday evening, there
continues to be a tornado threat, mainly along and east of
highway 83 from Maywood, to Stapleton and points east. By late
evening, the bulk of the severe threat will shift east of the
area. As for flood potential, with robust PWATS around 1.5
inches noted across the area, wouldn`t be surprised to see some
1-2 inch rainfall amounts with the stronger storms. As for flood
potential, am not overly concerned about flooding attm, given
the expected steering winds will be perpendicular to any line
segments which do develop. This should ensure storm motion is
high enough, to alleviate flooding potential. Additional
thunderstorms, will track from the Black Hills into northern
Nebraska overnight. These storms are in association with a cold
front and strong upper level disturbance, which approaches the
western Dakotas overnight Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The threat for showers and thunderstorms will linger over
northern Nebraska into Thursday as the shortwave trough tracks
across South Dakota. The bulk of this activity will be over
northern Nebraska where the best instability exists. Further
south, limited moisture and warmer temps aloft, should keep the
southern half of the forecast dry on Independence day. Highs
will run 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal, with readings
ranging from the middle 70s over northern Nebraska, to the lower
80s in far southwestern Nebraska. Tranquil and mild conditions
are expected for Friday and Saturday across the area. The next
threat for showers and thunderstorms will arrive Saturday night
into Sunday as a northern stream trough of low pressure aloft,
tracks from North Dakota into Minnesota. This feature will force
a cold front through the area Saturday night, leading to cooler
readings in the upper 70s/lower 80s for Sunday. Temps will
rebound back into the 80s for Monday and Tuesday with mainly dry
conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska
through the period. Light and variable winds at 10kts or less,
strengthening out of the southeast Wednesday afternoon, gusting
up to 20kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Viken