Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
596 FXUS62 KKEY 040930 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 530 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Another quiet morning is on deck for the Keys courtesy of the high pressure encompassing the region. Small-scale speed convergence will continue to help isolated showers pop-up across the forecast area, but these will be very short lived as has been the case in the overnight hours leading up to this forecast package. Even though Hurricane Beryl is well to the south of our area, the tightened pressure gradient will help encourage more moderate easterly breezes of near 15 mph through today and into tonight. As Beryl continues to move farther away, the gradient will be able to slacken and we will see those breezes become gentle again. Opting to continue the inherited 20% PoPs through the end of the week since there isn`t really anything that warrants a change, but any shower or thunderstorm activity will depend on small-scale triggers since we`re still lacking any large-scale ascent. From Sunday onward still has our attention as it looks like there will be some changes to our weather. A tropical wave over the Atlantic will move toward Florida, and may help push more moisture into the region as well as provide lift on a larger scale. The tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) that has also been mentioned in previous discussions is still reflected in some model guidance, and may also help encourage continued shower and thunderstorm activity into the midweek. There is still not much confidence when it comes down to the finer details since timing, QPF amounts, etc are sensitive to the evolution of the pattern, but the takeaway is that the first half of next week may see a change to our current drier weather. Temperatures through the whole forecast period will remain seasonably warm and muggy. Daytime heat indices will continue to climb just above 100F, and this is most important to pay attention to for the outdoor celebrations today for Independence Day, especially if anyone is visiting the Keys and is not used to this kind of heat and humidity. && .MARINE... Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Hurricane Beryl will continue its trek across the Caribbean Sea well to our south, but the increased pressure gradient will allow for a short period of moderate breezes through this afternoon and evening. These breezes will slacken tomorrow as Beryl moves farther away, and high pressure will lead to gentle east to southeasterly breezes veering to the southeast and south through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday evening at the EYW and MTH terminals. Isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible across the region, but the probability of direct impact on a terminal is too low to mention in the TAFs. Surface winds will remain from the east at 7 to 10 knots with occasional gusts around 15 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson Data Acquisition.....Jacobson Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest