Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
763 FXUS62 KKEY 021912 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 312 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Composite satellite analysis places a mid-latitude upper-level trough off the Eastern Seaboard, separating a mid-level ridge over the Mississippi Valley and a second ridge over the central and eastern North Atlantic. Meanwhile, at the surface, a stationary front remains draped over the Southeast, along with an expansive area of high pressure over much of the North Atlantic, and last but certainly not least, Major Hurricane Beryl in the southern Caribbean en route to the island of Jamaica. We mentioned earlier that there was a chance for some confluence- generated shower development to occur this afternoon as the low- level flow gradually shifted from the southeast to east from east to west. However, flow has been a bit weaker than expected, and thus the confluent effect has been minimal. Instead, the Cuban island effect has ruled supreme thus far today. KAMX and KBYX locally available Doppler radars have struggled to detect any meteorological returns. Temperatures are hovering near 90F across the island chain, with dew points in the seasonal mid to upper 70s. After several days of very wet weather, the overall synoptic pattern will gradually evolve into a typical summertime setup. The ridge over the Mississippi Valley will slowly expand eastward, becoming the dominant feature for the Florida Keys for the next several days. This, along with the surface high over the North Atlantic, will steer Beryl west northwestward, eventually reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Forecast soundings highlight an extended period of east to southeast breezes for the Florida Keys, coupled with episodic more moist and drier periods. With no major synoptic forcing for ascent, climatological rain and thunder chances seem appropriate through Saturday. Late in the weekend, a easterly tropical wave may approach the island of Cuba. Then, early next week, there are at least some indications that a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) cell may break off in the vicinity of Bermuda and dive southwestward towards the Florida Peninsula. Given these features, slightly elevated rain and thunder chances seem prudent for now, until they are better resolved temporally and spatially. Temperatures will remain seasonally warm and muggy for at least the next seven days, with highs near 90F, and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Summer is here. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Florida Keys. Hurricane Beryl will remain well south of the Florida Keys as it continues to march west northwest through the Caribbean Sea through Thursday. Breezes will briefly freshen Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, as Beryl makes its closest approach to the Keys. As Beryl approaches the Bay of Campeche and the high shifts in the North Atlantic, gentle breezes will veer to the southeast over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period for both terminals. Near-surface southeasterly winds of up to 10 kts become east to southeasterly this evening and overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 83 91 83 / 20 20 20 20 Marathon 90 83 91 83 / 30 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest