402
FXUS63 KJKL 150508
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
108 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be quite warm Thursday afternoon, climbing to
  near 90 degrees, before cooling back down closer to normal
  levels through the remainder of the week.

- Humidity, along with the possibility of showers and
  thunderstorms will increase late in the week, with the highest
  probability of storms during the Friday afternoon and evening
  time frame.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1206 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2024

Late evening temperatures were blended into the forecast without
any substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 944 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2024

The weather is quiet and the forecast is on track. The only
changes made were to blend in early evening obs, including a
faster temperatures drop in valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2024

Eastern Kentucky is facing the beginnings of a pattern change
through the short term. Aloft, ridging across the Upper Midwest
breaks down as it shifts eastward into the Ohio Valley in response
to an approaching trough. This trough is just entering the Midwest
by the end of the short term. At the surface, Appalachian high
pressure yields to a warm front passing northeast across our
forecast area Thursday...Thursday evening. An upstream cold front
then approaches in quick fashion, entering the Midwest just at
the end of the period.

Sensible weather features a transition towards a more unsettled
pattern towards the end of the week, beginning at the end of the
period. Fair weather will prevail until the very end of the short
term when showers and thunderstorms will develop in the warm
sector over our region Thursday night. Hazards through Thursday
night look minimal at this time. The dry air in place over eastern
Kentucky will allow for one more cool night, with valley temps
dropping into the 50s for much of our area, particularly across
our eastern zones. Veering flow may help keep temps up slightly
across our western valleys as compared to this morning. Our
thermal belt ridges will likely wind up being a couple degrees
warmer as well. Best ridge-valley splits will be realized across
our east, along with a better potential for river valley fog. With
the development of southerly return flow across eastern Kentucky
behind a passing warm front Thursday, temperatures and dew points
will increase rapidly across the area. With H850 temps climbing to
near 20C by late afternoon, afternoon highs will turn out to be
quite warm and conditions considerably more muggy than the past
several days, especially over our western and southwestern zones.
Lows Thursday night will probably occur in the evening or around
midnight as increasing clouds through the overnight period will
cause temperatures to rebound. Went with more of a non-diurnal
temp trend to end out the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2024

The flow pattern aloft in the extended will start off with hurricane
Ernesto churning its way northward through the west central
Atlantic, with a trough of low pressure departing the coast of Maine
and southeastern Canada. Further west, we will see our weather maker
in the form of a slow moving and well developed trough of low
pressure moving through the Great Lakes and into New England. This
system will bring showers and storms to eastern Kentucky Friday
through Saturday, as its surface cold front moves into and then
stalls over the area. The rain associated with the front should
begin to exit the area to the east Saturday night into early Sunday.
After a brief reprieve from the rain behind the front, we are
expecting further rounds of rain Sunday through Monday, as a trough
aloft moves off to our northeast, and pumps residual moisture into
the region. With lift from the low also present, we expect to see
scattered showers and storms at times Sunday and Monday, especially
during the afternoon and early evening hours each day. Once these
two rounds of rain come to an end, a ridge of high pressure will
settle over the region, and will bring dry weather, mostly clear
skies, and light winds to eastern Kentucky from Monday night into
the middle of the week.

As the ridge moves overhead, conditions will be prime for nightly
ridge valley temperature splits the first half of the new work week.
With clear skies, light winds, and dry air all on tap, decided to
cool the valleys off a bit more than previously forecast, since
conditions seem ideal for the ridge/valley differences. A
combination of the latest runs of the GFS, ECMWF, WPC guidance, and
GFS Ensembles were all used to create the forecast, with the
evolution of the flow pattern aloft being emphasized.

Temperatures will be quite warm overall, with daily highs in the 80s
expected. The coolest days will see max values in the lower 80s,
while the warmest days could warm into the mid and upper 80s.
Nightly lows will be quite pleasant as well, with nightly values
ranging from the mid to upper 50s in valleys to the 60s on the
surrounding ridgetops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2024

The 06z TAF package maintains continuity from the previous TAF
package. Aside from IFR or worse conditions in late night and
early morning valley fog, VFR conditions will prevail during the
period. The fog is unlikely to affect TAF sites. Winds will be
around 5 kts or less.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC