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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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219 FXUS62 KJAX 161340 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 935 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 935 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The GOES imagery shows a nice swath of dry air over the forecast area with a PWAT minimum down to near 1.03 inches, with higher moisture well to the south over srn FL at 2 inches. Slightly higher moisture noted over inland southeast GA, but still about 1.3 inches and well below normal. Indeed, the 12z JAX sounding showed PWAT of 1.15 inches, about 1-2 tenths less than about the 10 percentile. Temps and the moisture remain below average. Highs today upper 80s around the coastal areas and lower 90s inland. The current forecast looks on track and only minor adjustments were made to the max temps and sky cover. Should see some daytime cumulus develop but generally sunny to mostly sunny skies and continued northeasterly winds up to 10-15 mph and breezy at times. On the marine side, the forecast winds and seas appear to be on track with little needing to be changed. Long period swell energy from Ernesto began being registering at the nearshore buoys more so after 06z this morning and will increase through tonight. High risk of rip currents expected through at least Sunday. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 An unusually dry northeasterly flow has overspread the forecast area this morning. The latest GOES derived precipitable water values have fallen toward unseasonably low values, which are hovering around the 10th percentile according to the sounding climatology at JAX. Without typical moisture, a rain-free day is expected. An elongated surface high stretched along southeastern US will gradually slide eastward through today allowing the local gradients to decompress. Breezy onshore winds through the morning and afternoon will moderate afternoon high temperatures for coastal communities today, highs reading int the mid/upper 80s. Farther inland highs will be seasonal in the low 90s. Dewpoints will mix out this afternoon, reducing the heat index (i.e. how hot it feels). The breezy conditions will lighten up this evening and temperatures will cool into the upper 60s and low 70s under clear skies tonight. With the lull in the typical summertime weather, the primary concern today will be elevated surf and strong rip current at area beaches over the next couple of days. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Pattern for dry weather will continue through Saturday as drier air with PWAT values measuring less than 1 inch passes through the area from out of the northeast. High pressure ridging over the region is expected to push southward on Sunday followed by unstable moist conditions ahead of an advancing cold front from out of the north which will result in increased chances for showers and storms by the end of the weekend, with developments most likely to occur over southeast Georgia and adjacent areas of northeast Florida. High temperatures for the weekend will be in the lower to mid 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower to mid 70s. Heat index values will rise to be above 100 on Sunday, however conditions are not expected to reach heat advisory levels this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The frontal boundary will press southward next week and is expected to stall within the vicinity of the Georgia / Florida border with drier weather expected over southeast Georgia, with diurnal convective developments occurring south of the frontal boundary and more widespread over north central Florida. The remains of the frontal boundary over the region will diminish and prevailing flow shifting to become more out of the southeast and south as high pressure ridging builds in from out of the southeast. High temperatures through midweek are expected to be near and slightly above average with temps rising into the lower to mid 90s. Conditions are not anticipated to reach heat advisory levels during this period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail today with few to scattered cumulus developing by 15-16z. No convection is forecast to affect the terminals due to a drier than normal airmass. Northeast winds will increase to near 8-14 kt and gusty by midday. && .MARINE... Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A combination of breezy onshore and powerful swells emanating from Hurricane will lead to hazardous combined seas offshore. There may be a brief period of higher seas reaching the nearshore waters late this afternoon. Small Craft Advisory will be in effect today and tonight for those elevated seas. Onshore flow will begin weakening this afternoon and continue through Saturday as high pressure starts to shift east over the coastal waters. Later this weekend winds will turn offshore ahead of an approaching cold front that will work southward through the waters early next week. Thunderstorm activity will be reignited ahead of and with the cold frontal passage. RIP CURRENTS: The surf will be particularly rough today. A battering surf zone and a powerful long-period swell will lead to substantial rip currents this afternoon. Dangerous rip currents will persist through the entire weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Ongoing moderate river flooding continues along portions of the Santa Fe, St Marys, and Suwannee rivers; however, many points along Suwannee and Santa Fe have already fallen to minor flood levels. An unseasonable two-day bout of dry weather will allow levels to fall farther with ongoing moderate flooding lowering into minor levels by the end of the weekend or earlier. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 68 92 73 / 0 0 10 10 SSI 88 74 89 75 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 89 70 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 87 73 88 72 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 90 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 91 68 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-133- 138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$